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. 2017 Dec 21;7:17966. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Spatially aggregated precipitation variability change. Land area fraction experiencing a given change in the interannual standard deviation of seasonal-mean precipitation over extra-tropical land in (a) summer and (b) winter, and tropical land in (c) JJA and (d) DJF at individual grid points from 1976–2005 to 2071–2100 forced by the RCP8.5 scenario, and changes expected from natural variability sampled as differences between randomly-drawn members of the CESM1 single-model ensemble for 1976–2005 (grey shading). Shading indicates the 5–95% confidence interval.