TABLE 2.
Predictive performance of CART-derived and other candidate AUC toxicity thresholdsa
| AUC (mg · h/liter) | Sensitivity (%) | NPV (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | Area under ROC curve (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC0–48 | |||||
| ≥1,000 | 85.0 | 97.2 | 34.7 | 7.9 | 0.598 (0.482–0.714) |
| ≥1,200 | 80.0 | 97.6 | 53.1 | 10.1 | 0.666 (0.554–0.778) |
| ≥1,218 | 80.0 | 97.6 | 54.5 | 10.4 | 0.672 (0.561–0.784) |
| ≥1,400 | 50.0 | 95.5 | 70.3 | 10.0 | 0.601 (0.469–0.734) |
| ≥1,600 | 25.0 | 94.3 | 82.5 | 8.6 | 0.538 (0.402–0.673) |
| ≥1,800 | 5.0 | 93.5 | 90.8 | 3.4 | 0.479 (0.352–0.605) |
| AUC0–24 | |||||
| ≥500 | 80.0 | 96.7 | 38.3 | 7.9 | 0.591 (0.472–0.711) |
| ≥600 | 65.0 | 96.0 | 55.8 | 8.8 | 0.604 (0.478–0.730) |
| ≥677 | 65.0 | 96.7 | 66.7 | 11.4 | 0.658 (0.534–0.783) |
| ≥700 | 50.0 | 95.5 | 70.0 | 9.9 | 0.600 (0.467–0.733) |
| ≥800 | 30.0 | 94.7 | 82.5 | 10.2 | 0.563 (0.425–0.700) |
| ≥900 | 10.0 | 93.8 | 89.4 | 5.9 | 0.497 (0.367–0.628) |
| AUC24–48 | |||||
| ≥500 | 80.0 | 96.2 | 33.0 | 7.3 | 0.565 (0.443–0.687) |
| ≥600 | 65.0 | 95.9 | 53.5 | 8.4 | 0.592 (0.466–0.718) |
| ≥683 | 60.0 | 96.3 | 69.6 | 11.5 | 0.648 (0.520–0.777) |
| ≥700 | 50.0 | 95.6 | 71.6 | 10.4 | 0.608 (0.475–0.741) |
| ≥800 | 30.0 | 94.7 | 81.8 | 9.8 | 0.559 (0.422–0.696) |
| ≥900 | 10.0 | 93.8 | 89.1 | 5.7 | 0.496 (0.366–0.626) |
a
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the concentration-time curve; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; CI, confidence interval.