Table 2.
One-year mortality risk prediction in a cohort of patients aged 65 years and older, and those with dementia in THIN
| Sample | Patient subgroups | Events/no. of subjects (%) | Logistic model | c-statistic (95% CI) | p-valuea | IDI (95%CI) | p-valueb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elderly | All patients | 34,337/1,193,268 (2.9) | Age + sex | 0.78 (0.78–0.79) | – | Reference | – |
| Age + sex + QOF score | 0.82 (0.81–0.82) | <0.001 | 0.0151 (0.0145; 0.0158) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with accommodation registration | 3,764/23,684 (15.9) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.71 (0.70–0.72) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + accommodation | 0.76 (0.75–0.77) | <0.001 | 0.0360 (0.0333; 0.0387) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with mobility registration | 11,069/55,597 (19.9) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.66 (0.65–0.66) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF + mobility | 0.66 (0.66–0.67) | <0.001 | 0.0034 (0.0030; 0.0039) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with dressing registration | 379/5,197 (7.3) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.70 (0.67–0.72) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + dressing | 0.72 (0.70–0.75) | <0.001 | 0.0207 (0.0138; 0.0276) | <0.001 | |||
| Elderly with dementia | All patients | 1,656/15,300 (10.8) | Age + sex | 0.66 (0.64–0.67) | – | Reference | – |
| Age + sex + QOF score | 0.66 (0.65–0.69) | <0.001 | 0.0052 (0.0037; 0.0068) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with accommodation registration | 286/1,174 (24.4) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.63 (0.59–0.67) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + accommodation | 0.64 (0.61–0.68) | 0.015 | 0.0098 (0.0051; 0.0146) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with mobility registration | 348/1,497 (23.2) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.59 (0.55–0.62) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + mobility | 0.59 (0.55–0.62) | 0.592 | 0.0015 (−0.00003; 0.0033) | 0.051 | |||
| Patients with dressing registration | 28/143 (19.6) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.62 (0.51–0.73) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + dressing | 0.69 (0.58–0.80) | 0.134 | 0.0333 (0.0047; 0.0618) | 0.011 |
Notes:
a
p-value from DeLong test for difference between the two c-statistics.
b
p-value from test that IDI is not significantly different from zero.
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; QOF, Quality and Outcomes Framework; THIN, The Health Improvement Network.