Table 3.
One-month mortality prediction in a cohort of patients aged 65 years and older, and those with dementia in THIN
| Sample | Patient subgroups | Events/no. of subjects (%) | Logistic model | c-statistic (95% CI) | p-valuea | IDI (95% CI) | p-valueb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elderly | All patients | 3,166/1,193,268 (0.3) | Age + sex | 0.78 (0.78–0.79) | – | Reference | – |
| Age + sex + QOF score | 0.83 (0.82–0.83) | <0.001 | 0.0028 (0.0025; 0.0031) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with accommodation registration | 503/23,684 (2.1) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.73 (0.71–0.75) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + accommodation | 0.79 (0.77–0.80) | <0.001 | 0.0091 (0.0078; 0.0103) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with mobility registration | 1,903/55,597 (3.4) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.65 (0.63–0.66) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + mobility | 0.66 (0.65–0.67) | <0.001 | 0.0015 (0.0013; 0.0017) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with dressing registration | 20/5,197(0.4) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.77 (0.65–0.89) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + dressing | 0.80 (0.68–0.92) | 0.368 | 0.0139 (0.0005; 0.0273) | 0.021 | |||
| Elderly with dementia | All patients | 171/15,300 (1.1) | Age + sex | 0.65 (0.60–0.69) | – | Reference | – |
| Age + sex + QOF score | 0.67 (0.63–0.72) | 0.027 | 0.0015 (0.0004; 0.0027) | 0.004 | |||
| Patients with accommodation registration | 36/1,174(3.1) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.67 (0.58–0.76) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + accommodation | 0.71 (0.63–0.79) | <0.001 | 0.0052 (0.0037; 0.0066) | <0.001 | |||
| Patients with mobility registration | 50/1,497(3.3) | Age + sex + QOF score | 0.67 (0.60–0.75) | – | Reference | – | |
| Age + sex + QOF score + mobility | 0.69 (0.61–0.76) | <0.001 | 0.0021 (0.0015; 0.0027) | <0.001 |
Notes:
a
p-value from DeLong test for difference between the two c-statistics.
b
p-value from test that IDI is not significantly different from zero.
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; QOF, Quality and Outcomes Framework; THIN, The Health Improvement Network.