Table 2. Model input parameters for RotaTeq and their distributions for interval estimation.
| Input parameter | Mean (n or %) |
(SD) or 95% confidence interval | Reference | Probability distribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benefit: prevented hospitalisation for RVGE before 5 years of age | Annual incidence of RVGE hospitalisations per 1,000 infants | 3.1 | (0.4) | a | Gamma shape = 61.2, scale = 5.09 e-5 |
| Number of RVGE deaths per year | 16 | 15–18 | [14] | Lognormal μ = ln(16), σ = 0.046 |
|
| Efficacy after first dose | |||||
| During first year | 58.9% | 51.7%–65.0% | [27]b | Beta α = 123.5, β = 86.2 | |
| After second year | 53.6% | 46.4%–59.7% | Beta α = 115.5, β = 99.9 | ||
| Efficacy after second dose | |||||
| During first year | 77.4% | 71.1%–82.1% | [27]b, c | Beta α = 170.7, β = 49.8 | |
| After second year | 72.1% | 65.8%–76.8% | Beta α = 183.0, β = 70.8 | ||
| Efficacy after third dose | |||||
| During first year | 95.8% | 90.5%–98.2% | [27]b | Beta α = 99.0, β = 4.34 | |
| After second year | 88.0% | 82.7%–90.4% | Beta α = 240, β = 32.7 | ||
| Risk: vaccine-induced hospitalisation for IS before 1 year of age | Annual incidence of IS hospitalisations per 100,000 infants under 1 year of age | 28.0 | (1.9) | [21] | Gamma shape = 214.4, scale = 1.31e-6 |
| Case–fatality rate of IS | 0.0012 | (0.0007) | [32] | Beta α = 3, β = 2584 | |
| Vaccine-induced RR of IS post dose one during | |||||
| Week 1 | 9.9 | 3.7–26.4 | [9] | Lognormal μ = ln(9.89), σ = 0.49 |
|
| Week 2 and 3 | 6.3 | 2.8–14.4 | Lognormal μ = ln(6.32), σ = 0.41 |
||
| Vaccine-induced RR of IS post dose two during | |||||
| Week 1 | 2.8 | 1.2–6.8 | [9] | Lognormal μ = ln(2.81), σ = 0.44 |
|
| Week 2 and 3 | 1.8 | 0.8–3.9 | Lognormal μ = ln(1.77), σ = 0.39 |
||
IS: intussusception; RR: relative risk; RVGE, rotavirus gastroenteritis; SD: standard deviation.
a EGB (Echantillon Généraliste des Bénéficiaires): extraction of acute gastroenteritis admissions in infant before 5 years of age from the French hospital stays database.
b The waning effects between first- and second-year efficacies were considered similar to Rotarix (i.e. a 5.3% decrease after first and second dose, and a 7.8% decrease after third dose [28])
c Efficacy after second dose and its confidence interval were taken as average values between post-dose one and post-dose three results.