Table 1.
Model inputs: morbidity probabilities used in base case and sensitivity analyses
| Model input | Base case value | SA range for one-way sensitivity analysesa | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | ||||
| Prediction rule | ||||
| High risk (> 10% RSV hospitalisation risk) | 0.112 | 0.08–0.14 | β (SD 0.01) | Korsten et al. |
| RSV prophylaxis group | ||||
| Recurrent wheezing, no RSV hospitalisationb | 0.19 | 0.15–0.24 | β (SD 0.02) | Blanken et al. |
| Recurrent wheezing, RSV hospitalisationb | 0.55 | 0.41–0.68 | β (SD 0.05) | Blanken |
| RSV hospitalisation, given high risk | 0.126 | 0.095–0.158 | β (SD 0.01) | Korsten |
| PICU, given hospitalisationc | 0.088 | 0.07–0.11 | β (SD 0.01) | Korsten |
| Mortality, given PICU admissionc | 0.01 | 0.008–0.013 | β (SD 0.001) | Supplement |
| Placebo group | ||||
| Recurrent wheezing, no RSV hospitalisation | 0.19 | 0.15–0.24 | β (SD 0.02) | Blanken |
| Recurrent wheezing, RSV hospitalisation | 0.55 | 0.41–0.68 | β (SD 0.05) | Blanken |
| RSV hospitalisation, given low risk | 0.034 | 0.026–0.043 | β (SD 0.005) | Korsten |
| PICU, given hospitalisation | 0.088 | 0.07–0.11 | β (SD 0.01) | Korsten |
| Standard care | ||||
| Recurrent wheezing, no RSV hospitalisation | 0.19 | 0.15–0.24 | β (SD 0.02) | Blanken |
| Recurrent wheezing, RSV hospitalisation | 0.55 | 0.41–0.68 | β (SD 0.05) | Blanken |
| RSV hospitalisation | 0.044 | 0.033–0.055 | β (SD 0.005) | Korsten |
| PICU, given hospitalisation | 0.088 | 0.07–0.11 | β (SD 0.01) | Korsten |
| Utility (positive)/disutility (negative) | ||||
| No RSV hospitalisation, baseline | 0.95 | 0.71–1.00 | Gamma (SD 0.1) | Greenough et al. |
| RSV hospitalisation | − 0.07 | − 0.05– -0.09 | Gamma (SD 0.01) | Greenough |
| PICU admission§ | − 0.15 | − 0.17– -0.28 | Gamma (SD 0.02) | Jones et al. |
| Wheezing, QALY reduction | − 0.08 | − 0.06– -0.1 | Gamma (SD 0.01) | RIVM |
| Prophylaxis effectiveness | ||||
| Reduction of RSV hospitalisation | 0.82 | 0.62–1.03 | β (SD 0.08) | Blanken |
| Reduction of recurrent wheezing | 0.47 | 0.35–0.59 | β (SD 0.05) | Blanken |
SA range sensitivity analysis range, SD standard deviation
aUnivariate sensitivity analysis ranges were derived by increasing and decreasing baseline values by 25%
bRecurrent wheezing following RSV GP visit in the RSV prophylaxis group was assumed equal to recurrent wheezing following RSV GP visit in the placebo group because the trial data suggested an inconsistent probability of 1.0 following RSV GP visit in the RSV prophylaxis group (n = 2)
cPotential utility loss and costs due to PICU admission and mortality were included in all RSV hospitalisation based on the probability of PICU admission and mortality following RSV hospitalisation