Table 3.
Predicted outcomes under surveillance protocols that biopsy every 1, 2, 3, and 4 years for up to 12 years for men age 60 years at enrollment.
| Cohort | Number of years between biopsies | Time to upgrade detection | Number of biopsies | Delay in upgrade detection relative to annual biopsies | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||||||||||||||
| Mean | SD | Median | Q1 | Q3 | Mean | SD | Median | Q1 | Q3 | Mean | SD | Median | Q1 | Q3 | ||
| JHU | 1 | 5.18 | 3.22 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 5.18 | 3.22 | 5 | 2 | 8 | (reference) | ||||
| 2 | 5.75 | 3.20 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2.87 | 1.60 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6.32 | 3.20 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 2.11 | 1.07 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.14 | 0.80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 6.94 | 3.10 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 1.74 | 0.78 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.76 | 1.08 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2* | 5.58 | 3.41 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3.71 | 1.82 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
|
| ||||||||||||||||
| PASS | 1 | 3.86 | 3.07 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3.86 | 3.07 | 3 | 1 | 6 | (reference) | ||||
| 2 | 4.49 | 3.00 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2.24 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5.15 | 2.89 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.72 | 0.96 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.29 | 0.78 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4 | 5.85 | 2.75 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.46 | 0.69 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | 1.08 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2* | 4.15 | 3.30 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2.91 | 1.82 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
|
| ||||||||||||||||
| UT | 1 | 3.29 | 2.94 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3.29 | 2.94 | 2 | 1 | 5 | (reference) | ||||
| 2 | 3.99 | 2.83 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1.99 | 1.42 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.69 | 0.46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4.74 | 2.72 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.58 | 0.91 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.45 | 0.75 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4 | 5.48 | 2.57 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.37 | 0.64 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.18 | 1.05 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2* | 3.53 | 3.17 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2.54 | 1.78 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
|
| ||||||||||||||||
| UCSF | 1 | 3.64 | 2.92 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3.64 | 2.92 | 3 | 1 | 5 | (reference) | ||||
| 2 | 4.27 | 2.84 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2.14 | 1.42 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4.97 | 2.75 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.66 | 0.92 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.33 | 0.78 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4 | 5.67 | 2.63 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.42 | 0.66 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2* | 3.92 | 3.14 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2.79 | 1.74 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SD – standard deviation; Q1 – first quartile; Q3 – first quartile; JHU – Johns Hopkins University; PASS – Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study; UT – University of Toronto; UCSF – University of California San Francisco.
*
Biopsy every 2 years starting after one year.