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. 2015 Sep 30;26(6):2681–2699. doi: 10.1177/0962280215606155

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© The Author(s) 2015

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).

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Figure 1. — Illustration of a Normal Dynamic Linear Model fit to simulated trial data based on a theoretical dose–response relationship. The figure shows the theoretical dose-response curve, the piecewise linear fit derived from the Normal Dynamic Linear Model and the actual observed means from a single simulated trial realisation (stars).The outlying mean at 0.4 mg was based on just six patients randomised to this dose and consequently had a relatively smaller influence on the model estimate of the treatment effect at that dose.