Table 4.
Performance Measure | Internal Validation (n= 45 tools) | External Validation (n= 79 validations) |
---|---|---|
| ||
Internal Validation Method* | ||
Apparent | 27 (60) | -- |
Cross-Validation | 2 (4) | -- |
Split Sample | 6 (14) | -- |
Bootstrapping | 10 (22) | -- |
| ||
External Validation Method | ||
Independent | -- | 61 (77) |
Geographic | -- | 13 (16) |
Temporal | -- | 3 (4) |
Other** | 2 (3) | |
| ||
Overall Model Performance | ||
R-squared | 2 (4) | 2 (3) |
| ||
Calibration | ||
Graph (Plot/intercept/slope) | 11 (25) | 4 (5) |
Hosmer/Lemeshow statistic | 3 (7) | 0 (0) |
Sub-group calibration*** | 2 (5) | 5 (6) |
| ||
Discrimination | ||
C-statistic**** | 21 (48) | 33 (42) |
| ||
Survival Analysis Only with Significance Test | 22 (50) | 40 (51) |
One tool applied both split sample and bootstrap methods;
An RCT(s) was used to develop the prognostic tool, and an additional RCT was used for validation;
Tables comparing predicted and observed values for groups of patients were provided;
Concordance index based on the ROC for binary data, Harrell’s C statistic for models using time to event data