Table 1.
Relative impact of vaccination strategies on the predicted cumulative number of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) cases (in the period 2004–2060) by population scenario
| Varicella cases (differences in %a) |
HZ cases (differences in %a) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Stationary population | ||
| Varicella vaccinationb | –72.55% | +11.15% |
| Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc | –72.57% | +9.90% |
| Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc | –72.63% | +6.15% |
| Projected population | ||
| Varicella vaccinationb | –69.70% | +10.84% |
| Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc | –69.72% | +9.52% |
| Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc | –69.80% | +5.18% |
| Projected population with increased immigration | ||
| Varicella vaccinationb | –68.90% | +10.94% |
| Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc | –68.92% | +9.60% |
| Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc | –69.01% | +5.29% |
aCompared to scenario without varicella and HZ vaccination
bVaccination coverage 86.9%/64.1% (2004–2010 as observed)
cVaccination coverage 20%