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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: Nat Genet. 2017 Jan 16;49(3):332–340. doi: 10.1038/ng.3756

Figure 4. Individualized risk exemplified for 2 patients.

Figure 4

a. Sediment plot showing predicted multistage probability after remission for patient PD11104a under a management strategy of standard chemotherapy in CR1 with intended allograft after relapse. Predictions shown are based on models where the given patients were excluded for training; the bar at the bottom denotes the observed outcome (as for Figure 3). The patient was alive at the last follow-up 3.5 years after achieving first complete remission. Numbers at the bottom indicate the probabilities of non-relapse death (NRD), post-relapse death (PRD) and being alive after relapse (AAR) at years 1 to 5 from achieving complete remission.

b. Multistage probability for PD11104a in the scenario of an allograft in first complete remission.

c. Same as a for patient PD8314a. The patient relapsed after 1.2 years and died soon after.

d. Same as b for patient PD8314a.

Details of these calculations are presented in Supplementary Note, section 3.5.5.8; additional patients shown in Supplementary Figure S2.