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. 2018 Jan 11;8:552. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-17335-9

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Conceptualisation of the modeling approach. Panel A shows the situation when LPMs are open, and H7N9 transmission from poultry to humans occurs at a rate λ, while human-to-human transmission also occurs with reproductive number Re. In this situation there may be an epidemic of human infections with H7N9. Panel B shows the situation when LPMs are closed, transmission from poultry to humans occurs at a reduced rate λ′, while human-to-human transmission also occurs with the same reproductive number Re as in panel A. In this situation there may be sporadic clusters of human infections with H7N9.