Table 4.

Reduction in cancer incidence and incremental benefit (the reduction in cancer incidence per additional screen) for realistic screening coverage, from 10,000 simulated datasets of 300,000 women with natural history parameters drawn from the distributions given in Figure 1, under vaccine I (prevents all HPV‐16/18), vaccine II (prevents all HPV‐16/18 with 15% cross‐protection against other high risk HPV strains), vaccine III (prevents all HPV‐16/18 with 22% cross‐protection against other high risk HPV strains) and vaccine IV (initially prevents all HPV‐16/18, but efficacy wanes by 0.25% every 6 months)

	Vaccine
	I		II		III		IV
Screening scenario	% reduction (95% CR)	% incremental benefit per screen (95% CR)	% reduction (95% CR)	% incremental benefit per screen (95% CR)	% reduction (95% CR)	% incremental benefit per screen (95% CR)	% reduction (95% CR)	% incremental benefit per screen (95% CR)
2 screens:
30, 45	86.0 (83.2, 88.6)	3.9 (2.6, 5.2)	88.1(85.6, 90.5)	3.5 (2.3, 4.8)	88.9 (86.7, 91.0)	3.1 (1.9, 4.3)	83.5(80.4, 86.2)	4.3 (3.0, 5.7)
30, 55	85.5 (82.6, 88.3)	2.8 (1.7, 4.0)	87.7 (85.1, 90.1)	2.5 (1.5, 3.6)	88.6 (86.3, 90.7)	2.3 (1.3, 3.3)	83.2 (80.1, 86.1)	3.4 (2.2, 4.7)
3 screens:
30, 40, 55	88.3 (85.9, 90.6)	2.8 (1.7, 3.9)	90.0 (87.8, 92.1)	2.2 (1.3, 3.3)	90.8 (89.0, 92.6)	2.3 (1.3, 3.2)	86.3 (83.6, 88.7)	3.3 (2.2, 4.5)
30, 45, 60	87.6 (85.1, 90.0)	2.2 (1.0, 3.4)	89.4 (87.1, 91.5)	1.8 (0.7, 2.9)	90.2 (88.3, 92.1)	1.8 (0.8, 2.9)	85.6 (82.8, 88.0)	2.8 (1.6, 4.1)
25, 45, 65	85.7 (82.8, 88.4)	−0.4 (−1.9, 1.0)	87.7 (85.2, 90.2)	−0.5 (−1.8, 0.8)	88.6 (86.4, 90.8)	−0.5 (−1.8, 0.8)	83.3 (80.3, 86.0)	−0.3 (−1.8, 1.2)
4 screens:
30, 40, 50, 65	88.9 (86.6, 91.1)	1.0 (−0.3, 2.5)	90.5 (88.4, 92.4)	0.8 (−0.5, 2.2)	91.2 (89.4, 92.9)	0.8 (−0.5, 2.1)	87.0 (84.5, 89.3)	1.3 (−0.3, 2.8)
25, 35, 50, 65	88.6 (86.1, 90.8)	0.4 (−0.9, 1.6)	90.3 (88.2, 92.2)	0.5 (−0.7, 1.7)	91.0 (89.2, 92.7)	0.3 (−0.9, 1.4)	86.7 (84.2, 89.0)	0.6 (−0.7, 2.0)