Table 2.
European age-standardised cumulative number of cancers and incidences per 100 000 women aged 25–79 years in various screening coverage scenarios and calendar years at diagnosis
|
2016–20 |
2021–25 |
2026–30 |
2031–35 |
2036–40 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Rate per 100 000 | N | Rate per 100 000 | N | Rate per 100 000 | N | Rate per 100 000 | N | Rate per 100 000 | |
| Currently observed (status quo) | 947 | 14·0 | 863 | 12·8 | 785 | 11·6 | 794 | 11·8 | 782 | 11·6 |
| 85% coverage | 906 | 13·4 | 786 | 11·7 | 685 | 10·1 | 663 | 9·8 | 653 | 9·7 |
| 50% coverage | 1043 | 15·5 | 1049 | 15·5 | 1034 | 15·3 | 1131 | 16·8 | 1112 | 16·5 |
| 20% coverage | 1161 | 17·2 | 1273 | 18·9 | 1333 | 19·8 | 1532 | 22·7 | 1506 | 22·3 |
| Phasing out* | 2463 | 36·5 | 2498 | 37·0 | 2363 | 35·0 | 2527 | 37·4 | 2558 | 37·9 |
*
In this scenario, screening is no longer offered from 2016 onwards; it takes several years for women who had been regularly screened to eventually become never screened because they must become lapsed attenders first. Hence, some degree of protection against cervical cancer remains in this population until 2031–35 (appendix p 10).