Table 2.
Results of the six-age-group manifest Markov model of drinking severity status transitions from NESARC Wave 1 to Wave 2: Within-age-group transition probabilities and one-standard-error ranges around transition probabilities
| Ages 20–24 (n=2174) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 Abstainer/Low- Risk Drinker (n=956) |
W2 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=646) |
W2 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=346) |
W2 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=137) |
W2 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=89) |
|
| W1 Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker (n=1282) | 0.448 | 0.310 | 0.152 | 0.067 | 0.022 |
| (0.419–0.477) | (0.286–0.334) | (0.136–0.168) | (0.055–0.079) | (0.015–0.029) | |
| W1 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=438) | 0.127 | 0.486 | 0.264 | 0.058 | 0.065 |
| (0.109–0.145) | (0.453–0.519) | (0.232–0.296) | (0.044–0.072) | (0.049–0.081) | |
| W1 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=248) | 0.085 | 0.387 | 0.319 | 0.124 | 0.085 |
| (0.068–0.102) | (0.344–0.43) | (0.28–0.358) | (0.093–0.155) | (0.062–0.108) | |
| W1 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=111) | 0.054 | 0.278 | 0.387 | 0.161 | 0.120 |
| (0.034–0.074) | (0.232–0.324) | (0.33–0.444) | (0.113–0.209) | (0.083–0.157) | |
| W1 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=95) | 0.037 | 0.248 | 0.260 | 0.185 | 0.270 |
| (0.02–0.054) | (0.19–0.306) | (0.205–0.315) | (0.135–0.235) | (0.202–0.338) | |
| Ages 25–29 (n=2717) | |||||
| W2 Abstainer/Low- Risk Drinker (n=1432) |
W2 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=834) |
W2 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=301) |
W2 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=102) |
W2 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=48) |
|
| W1 Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker (n=1489) | 0.655 | 0.253 | 0.061 | 0.024 | 0.007 |
| (0.624–0.686) | (0.225–0.281) | (0.05–0.072) | (0.016–0.032) | (0.004–0.01) | |
| W1 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=730) | 0.230 | 0.540 | 0.180 | 0.031 | 0.019 |
| (0.207–0.253) | (0.512–0.568) | (0.156–0.204) | (0.02–0.042) | (0.01–0.028) | |
| W1 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=292) | 0.122 | 0.426 | 0.276 | 0.121 | 0.055 |
| (0.101–0.143) | (0.385–0.467) | (0.239–0.313) | (0.085–0.157) | (0.035–0.075) | |
| W1 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=123) | 0.101 | 0.335 | 0.335 | 0.157 | 0.072 |
| (0.075–0.127) | (0.28–0.39) | (0.271–0.399) | (0.109–0.205) | (0.033–0.111) | |
| W1 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=83) | 0.076 | 0.349 | 0.211 | 0.279 | 0.085 |
| (0.048–0.104) | (0.284–0.414) | (0.161–0.261) | (0.212–0.346) | (0.053–0.117) | |
| Ages 30–34 (n=3100) | |||||
| W2 Abstainer/Low- Risk Drinker (n=1792) |
W2 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=893) |
W2 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=289) |
W2 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=81) |
W2 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=45) |
|
| W1 Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker (n=1883) | 0.682 | 0.242 | 0.059 | 0.012 | 0.004 |
| (0.658–0.706) | (0.221–0.263) | (0.047–0.071) | (0.007–0.017) | (0.002–0.006) | |
| W1 Sub–Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=816) | 0.228 | 0.573 | 0.164 | 0.024 | 0.011 |
| (0.207–0.249) | (0.548–0.598) | (0.144–0.184) | (0.017–0.031) | (0.005–0.017) | |
| W1 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=267) | 0.141 | 0.463 | 0.228 | 0.129 | 0.038 |
| (0.114–0.168) | (0.423–0.503) | (0.195–0.261) | (0.097–0.161) | (0.019–0.057) | |
| W1 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=88) | 0.114 | 0.266 | 0.282 | 0.216 | 0.121 |
| (0.069–0.159) | (0.211–0.321) | (0.216–0.348) | (0.157–0.275) | (0.064–0.178) | |
| W1 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=46) | 0.130 | 0.368 | 0.306 | 0.096 | 0.100 |
| (0.081–0.179) | (0.272–0.464) | (0.216–0.396) | (0.045–0.147) | (0.048–0.152) | |
| Ages 35–39 (n=3487) | |||||
| W2 Abstainer/Low- Risk Drinker (n=2141) |
W2 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=909) |
W2 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=289) |
W2 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=91) |
W2 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=57) |
|
| W1 Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker (n=2227) | 0.726 | 0.205 | 0.057 | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| (0.707–0.745) | (0.188–0.222) | (0.047–0.067) | (0.005–0.011) | (0.001–0.005) | |
| W1 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=899) | 0.284 | 0.513 | 0.147 | 0.037 | 0.020 |
| (0.264–0.304) | (0.487–0.539) | (0.128–0.166) | (0.027–0.047) | (0.014–0.026) | |
| W1 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=251) | 0.159 | 0.410 | 0.336 | 0.057 | 0.038 |
| (0.134–0.184) | (0.363–0.457) | (0.293–0.379) | (0.04–0.074) | (0.022–0.054) | |
| W1 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=72) | 0.081 | 0.184 | 0.464 | 0.175 | 0.096 |
| (0.05–0.112) | (0.128–0.24) | (0.39–0.538) | (0.124–0.226) | (0.058–0.134) | |
| W1 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=38) | 0.085 | 0.141 | 0.252 | 0.228 | 0.293 |
| (0.047–0.123) | (0.08–0.202) | (0.162–0.342) | (0.142–0.314) | (0.166–0.42) | |
| Ages 40–47 (n=6076) | |||||
| W2 Abstainer/Low- Risk Drinker (n=3976) |
W2 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=1447) |
W2 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=429) |
W2 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=130) |
W2 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=94) |
|
| W1 Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker (n=4182) | 0.783 | 0.170 | 0.034 | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| (0.771–0.795) | (0.159–0.181) | (0.029–0.039) | (0.004–0.008) | (0.005–0.009) | |
| W1 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=1364) | 0.255 | 0.534 | 0.169 | 0.031 | 0.010 |
| (0.239–0.271) | (0.512–0.556) | (0.153–0.185) | (0.024–0.038) | (0.007–0.013) | |
| W1 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=368) | 0.111 | 0.460 | 0.285 | 0.092 | 0.052 |
| (0.094–0.128) | (0.426–0.494) | (0.254–0.316) | (0.072–0.112) | (0.037–0.067) | |
| W1 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=96) | 0.072 | 0.306 | 0.258 | 0.187 | 0.177 |
| (0.045–0.099) | (0.246–0.366) | (0.205–0.311) | (0.139–0.235) | (0.119–0.235) | |
| W1 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=66) | 0.104 | 0.138 | 0.122 | 0.136 | 0.500 |
| (0.064–0.144) | (0.086–0.19) | (0.07–0.174) | (0.089–0.183) | (0.425–0.575) | |
| Ages 48–55 (n=5240) | |||||
| W2 Abstainer/Low- Risk Drinker (n=3735) |
W2 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=1013) |
W2 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=322) |
W2 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=113) |
W2 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=57) |
|
| W1 Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker (n=3854) | 0.816 | 0.150 | 0.024 | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| (0.802–0.83) | (0.137–0.163) | (0.02–0.028) | (0.004–0.008) | (0.002–0.006) | |
| W1 Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker (n=1005) | 0.269 | 0.552 | 0.123 | 0.042 | 0.015 |
| (0.249–0.289) | (0.529–0.575) | (0.107–0.139) | (0.033–0.051) | (0.01–0.02) | |
| W1 Mild AUD (2–3 symptoms) (n=255) | 0.121 | 0.378 | 0.287 | 0.180 | 0.034 |
| (0.097–0.145) | (0.334–0.422) | (0.249–0.325) | (0.133–0.227) | (0.021–0.047) | |
| W1 Moderate AUD (4–5 symptoms) (n=64) | 0.140 | 0.318 | 0.257 | 0.160 | 0.125 |
| (0.094–0.186) | (0.242–0.394) | (0.194–0.32) | (0.113–0.207) | (0.071–0.179) | |
| W1 Severe AUD (6+ symptoms) (n=62) | 0.090 | 0.133 | 0.132 | 0.312 | 0.333 |
| (0.051–0.129) | (0.08–0.186) | (0.083–0.181) | (0.22–0.404) | (0.249–0.417) | |
Note. Transition probability estimates are in bold and are followed in parentheses by one-standard-error ranges around the estimate (with a lower bound of the estimate minus one standard error of the estimate and an upper bound of the estimate plus one standard error of the estimate). Note. Colored cells indicate the “simple” transition probabilities that were later summed to compute the “combined” transition probabilities that are contrasted in tests of primary interest in Table 3, per our definition of AUD desistance as a transition from one of the AUD statuses at Wave 1 to either the Abstainer/Low-Risk-Drinker status or the Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker status at Wave 2. Transition probabilities in blue cells were later summed to index desistance from Mild AUD, transition probabilities in red cells were later summed to index desistance from Moderate AUD, and transition probabilities in green cells were later summed to index desistance from Severe AUD.