Table 3.

Age-group contrasts of desistance-related transition probabilities of primary interest: Comparing the six age groups on AUD desistance from three AUD-severity levels

		Age groups
	Omnibus Wald χ2 tests	Ages 20–24 (n=2174)	Ages 25–29 (n=2717)	Ages 30–34 (n=3100)	Ages 35–39 (n=3487)	Ages 40–47 (n=6076)	Ages 48–55 (n=5240)
Desistance from Mild AUD	χ2(5)=8.179 (p=.147)	0.47	0.545	0.61	0.57	0.57	0.50
		(0.43–0.52)	(0.51–0.60)	(0.56– 0.65)	(0.523– 0.62)	(0.54– 0.60)	(0.45– 0.55)
Desistance from Moderate AUD	χ2(5)=6.770 (p=.238)	0.33	0.44	0.38	0.27	0.38	0.46
		(0.29–0.38)	(0.38–0.50)	(0.31– 0.45)	(0.20– 0.33)	(0.31– 0.44)	(0.38– 0.53)
Desistance from Severe AUDa	χ2(5)=11.165 (p=.048)	0.29ab	0.43a	0.50a	0.23b	0.24b	0.22b
		(0.23–0.35)	(0.36– 0.49)	(0.40– 0.60)	(0.16– 0.30)	(0.19– 0.30)	(0.15–0.29)

Note. Each main cell contains bolded transition probability estimates followed in parentheses by one-standard-error ranges around the estimate (with a lower bound of the estimate minus one standard error of the estimate and an upper bound of the estimate plus one standard error of the estimate). Note. Colored cells indicate probabilities of desistance from Mild (blue), Moderate (red), and Severe (green) AUD, where desistance was defined as transitions from these AUD statuses at Wave 1 to either the Abstainer/Low-Risk Drinker status or the Sub-Diagnostic Risky Drinker Status at Wave 2 (see Analytic Approach). The above shading corresponds to the shading in Table 2 in order to aid the reader in observing how “simple” transition probabilities in Table 2 were summed to compute the “combined” transition probabilities contrasted across age groups here in Table 3. Note. Prior to conducting the above tests, broader omnibus tests showed significant differences across the six age groups (a) among the full set of transition probabilities presented in Table 2 (χ²(100)=656.783 (p<.001)) and (b) among probabilities of the three AUD-desistance transitions of primary interest (χ²(15)=29.036 (p=.016)). Thus, as tabled above, we proceeded to conducting the three more specific omnibus tests of age-group differences in rates of the three AUD-desistance transitions of primary interest. Only the omnibus test for Severe-AUD desistance was significant, so only for Severe-AUD desistance were follow-up pairwise comparisons among the age groups conducted. Based on these pairwise age-group comparisons, age-group-specific Severe-AUD desistance probabilities that do not share a letter as a postscript were found to differ significantly.

^aNote that rates of desistance from Severe AUD were also very close to significantly lower at ages 20–24 when compared to both ages 25–29 (p=.112) and ages 30–34 (p=.053).