TABLE 3.
Average annual percent change (AAPC) in childhood cancer incidence, ages 0 to 4 years, SEER 9 counties (N=194), 1975–2013
| Combined Childhood Cancers |
Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia |
Acute Myeloid Leukemia |
Central Nervous System Tumors |
Hepatoblastoma | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | AAPC | 95% CI | Pa | %b | AAPC | 95% CI | Pa | %b | AAPC | 95% CI | Pa | %b | AAPC | 95% CI | Pa | %b | AAPC | 95% CI | Pa | %b |
| Crude | 0.71 | 0.55, 0.86 | <0.01 | 0.78 | 0.49, 1.07 | <0.01 | 1.86 | 1.13, 2.59 | <0.01 | 1.31 | 0.94, 1.67 | <0.01 | 2.70 | 1.68, 3.72 | <0.01 | |||||
| adjusted for: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Maternal Age | 0.32 | 0.08, 0.56 | 0.01 | −55 | 0.47 | 0.02, 0.91 | 0.04 | −40 | 1.48 | 0.47, 2.49 | <0.01 | −20 | 1.02 | 0.50, 1.55 | <0.01 | −22 | 2.48 | 1.19, 3.78 | <0.01 | −8 |
| Birthweight | 0.86 | 0.69, 1.02 | <0.01 | 21 | 0.92 | 0.61, 1.23 | <0.01 | 18 | 1.94 | 1.17, 2.72 | <0.01 | 4 | 1.56 | 1.18, 1.95 | <0.01 | 20 | 2.85 | 1.80, 3.92 | <0.01 | 6 |
| Birth Order | 0.71 | 0.55, 0.86 | <0.01 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.48, 1.06 | <0.01 | 0 | 1.86 | 1.12, 2.59 | <0.01 | 0 | 1.31 | 0.94, 1.67 | <0.01 | 0 | 2.70 | 1.68, 3.72 | <0.01 | 0 |
| % White | 0.80 | 0.63, 0.96 | <0.01 | 12 | 0.98 | 0.68, 1.28 | <0.01 | 26 | 1.80 | 1.05, 2.56 | <0.01 | −3 | 1.47 | 1.09, 1.85 | <0.01 | 12 | 2.79 | 1.76, 3.83 | <0.01 | 3 |
| % Hispanic | 0.86 | 0.69, 1.03 | <0.01 | 21 | 0.72 | 0.40, 1.03 | <0.01 | −8 | 2.28 | 1.49, 3.08 | <0.01 | 23 | 1.51 | 1.11, 1.91 | <0.01 | 15 | 2.57 | 1.50, 3.65 | <0.01 | −5 |
| % Poverty | 0.83 | 0.67, 0.99 | <0.01 | 17 | 0.89 | 0.59, 1.19 | <0.01 | 15 | 1.90 | 1.14, 2.66 | <0.01 | 2 | 1.47 | 1.09, 1.85 | <0.01 | 12 | 2.74 | 1.71, 3.78 | <0.01 | 2 |
| Fully Adjustedc | 0.75 | 0.48, 1.03 | <0.01 | 6 | 0.81 | 0.31, 1.31 | <0.01 | 4 | 1.62 | 0.38, 2.87 | 0.01 | −13 | 1.69 | 1.03, 2.35 | <0.01 | 29 | 2.36 | 0.71, 4.04 | 0.01 | −12 |
Abbreviations: AAPC, average annual percent change; CI, confidence interval; %white, proportion of children, ages 0–4 years, classified as white within county; %Hispanic, proportion of children, ages 0–4 years, classified as Hispanic within county; %poverty, proportion of residents, all ages, classified below the federal poverty line within county
P-values compare a 1-year change in cancer incidence; estimated from Poisson mixed models with a random intercept for repeated county-level measures over time
Percent change between crude and adjusted AAPCs (βyeardxadjusted−βyeardxcrude)/ βyeardxcrude)
Adjusted for year of diagnosis, maternal age, birthweight, birth order, %white, %Hispanic, and %poverty