Table 4.
Prognostic accuracy of OAC for severe disease (persistent organ failure) and mortality compared to other widely used predictors
| Variable | Outcome to predict | Se | Sp | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAC ≥ 32.4 nM | Severe disease | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mortality | 100 | 90.2 | 61.5 | 100 | |
| SIRS at ER | Severe disease | 75 | 56.5 | 31 | 89.7 |
| Mortality | 85.7 | 54.9 | 20.7 | 96.6 | |
| Persistent SIRS | Severe disease | 84.6 | 93.3 | 78.6 | 95.5 |
| Mortality | 75 | 84 | 42.9 | 95.5 | |
| HTC at ER > 44% | Severe disease | 38.5 | 60.9 | 21.7 | 77.8 |
| Mortality | 25 | 58.8 | 8.7 | 83.3 | |
| BISAP ≥ 3 | Severe disease | 38.5 | 89.1 | 50 | 83.7 |
| Mortality | 50 | 88.2 | 40 | 91.8 | |
| CRP ≥ 15 mg/dL at 48 h | Severe disease | 90 | 68.9 | 39.1 | 96.9 |
| Mortality | 80 | 62 | 17.4 | 96.9 |
Se Sensitivity, SP specificity, PPV/NPV positive/negative predictive values, POF persistent organ failure, OAC oleic acid chlorohydrin, SIRS systemic inflammatory response syndrome, HTC hematocrit, BISAP bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis, CRP C-reactive protein