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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Jan 16.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2017 Aug 10;5(10):788–798. doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30221-8

Table 2.

Coefficients for nephropathy and retinopathy outcomes using RECODe

Nephropathy
Retinopathy
Micro-
albuminuria
(n=1551)		 Macro-
albuminuria
(n=627)		 Renal failure
or end-stage
renal disease
(n=292)		 Doubling of
serum
creatinine or
>20 mL/min
per 1.73 m2
decrease in
eGFR
(n=5910)		 Macro-
albuminuria, renal
failure, end-stage
renal disease,
doubling of serum
creatinine, or
>20 mL/min per
1.73 m2 decrease
in eGFR (n=6195)		 Micro-
albuminuria,
macro-
albuminuria,
renal failure,
or end-stage
renal disease
(n=2321)		 Photo-
coagulation
or
vitrectomy
(n=901)		 Cataract
extraction
(n=1476)		 Three-line
reduction in
visual acuity
(n=3559)		 Severe vision
loss (n=776)		 Photo-
coagulation
or
vitrectomy,
or severe
vision loss
(n=1468)
Demographics
Age, years   0.02114   0.00733 −0.01938   0.01222   0.01163   0.01979 −0.003326   0.07457   0.01452   0.02285   0.00969
Women   0.16956   0.27380 −0.01129 −0.60460 −0.56143   0.10390   0.17187   0.27510   0.07600   0.22640   0.22558
Ethnicity
 Black −0.00804 −0.00556   0.08812   0.34610   0.29559 −0.02650   0.05655 −0.24960 −0.10650 −0.16770 −0.06502
 Hispanic or Latino   0.17342   0.35630   0.23380 −0.13600 −0.09178   0.24012   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..
Clinical features
Tobacco smoking, current   0.28362   0.10010   0.14830 −0.08675 −0.06691   0.26523   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg   0.00334 −0.00101   0.00303   0.00828   0.00888   0.00120   0.01228   0.00146   0.00138   0.00824   0.01090
Cardiovascular disease history   0.22312   0.25570 −0.02164   0.19560   0.019012   0.18020   0.28350   0.28350 −0.04092   0.1127   0.2186
Drug use
Blood pressure- lowering drugs   0.28372   0.24180 −0.07952   0.14860   0.18583   0.29453   0.20691   0.10420 −0.00188   0.06393   0.18019
Oral diabetes drugs   0.06584   0.09015 −0.12560   0.11610   0.08134   0.04787 −0.40746 −0.16670   0.06002 −0.23490 −0.31715
Anticoagulants   0.42199   0.01091   0.03199   0.04788   0.01498   0.4226   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..
Biomarkers
HbA1c, %   0.13847   0.09639   0.13690   0.10290   0.10364   0.13357   0.22339   0.09659   0.09346   0.1449   0.17249
Total cholesterol, mg/dL   0.00034   0.00009 −0.00111   0.00011   0.00064   0.00038 −0.00141 −0.00104 −0.00047 −0.00017 −0.00106
HDL cholesterol, mg/dL −0.00970 −0.01135   0.00629 −0.00590 −0.00521 −0.00649   0.01181   0.00732   0.00015   0.00545   0.00845
Serum creatinine, mg/dL   0.67026   1.14900   0.86090 −3.41100 −2.89893   0.46067   0.81582   0.2835   0.06586   0.69470   0.84481
Urine albumin:creatinine ratio, mg/g   ..   0.01335   0.00036   0.00021   ..   ..   ..   0.00016   0.00016   0.00020   ..

All risk factors listed in table 1 were considered for inclusion; the ones listed in tables 2 and 3 were selected for inclusion. The 10-year risk of an outcome can be computed as 1 − λ^exp(Σ(β×x) − mean(Σ(β × x))), where β are the equation coefficients and x are the values for each covariate for an individual patient within the cohort under study. λ values for the most clinically relevant outcomes of renal failure or end-stage renal disease, and severe vision loss are: 0.973 for renal failure or end-stage renal disease, and 0.921 for vision loss, and corresponding values of mean(Σ(β×x)) were 0.23 for renal failure or end-stage renal disease, and 4.56 for vision loss. For example, a 60-year-old non-smoking white man with systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg, without history of cardiovascular disease, not on any medications, and with HbA1c of 8%, total cholesterol of 190 mg/dL, HDL of 50 mg/dL, serum creatinine 1.1 mg/dL, and urine microalbumin:creatinine ratio of 10 mg/g would have a risk of renal failure/end-stage renal disease of 1–0.973^exp(−0.01938 × 60 + 0.003027 × 140 + 0.1369 × 8-0.001112 × 190 + 0.006289 × 50 + 0.8609 × 1.1 + 0.000362 × 10−0.23) = 0.085 or a 8.5% 10-year risk, where 0.23 is the mean(Σ(β×x)). People without a known covariate can have the associated term omitted from the equations to enable calculation of risk without the missing data. RECODe=Risk Equations for Complications of type 2 Diabetes.