Table 1.

Summaries of model performance for predictions of incidence in individual weeks. The “All Weeks” group summarizes log scores for all combinations of prediction horizon and target week in the test period; the “High Incidence” group summarizes log scores for predictions of indience in weeks where the observed incidence was at least two thirds of the maximum weekly incidence in the test period.

			Summary of Log Scores
Disease	Subset	Model	Min	Mean
Dengue	All Weeks	Null KCDE	−9.981	−5.147
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−10.373	−5.165
		Periodic KCDE	−11.047	−5.021
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−10.851	−5.019
		HHH4	−16.201	−5.369
		SARIMA	−14.416	−5.456
	High Incidence	Null KCDE	−9.981	−8.235
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−10.373	−8.339
		Periodic KCDE	−11.047	−7.841
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−10.851	−7.791
		HHH4	−14.665	−9.046
		SARIMA	−14.416	−9.380
Influenza	All Weeks	Null KCDE	−4.430	−1.039
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−5.004	−0.993
		Periodic KCDE	−3.660	−0.668
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−3.850	−0.642
		SARIMA	−6.385	−0.666
	High Incidence	Null KCDE	−4.430	−2.887
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−5.004	−3.025
		Periodic KCDE	−3.660	−2.404
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−3.850	−2.447
		SARIMA	−6.385	−2.345

The model in bold font had the highest mean log score within each combination of disease and weeks subset. The model in italicized and underlined font had the lowest minimum log score within each combination of disease and weeks subset. In some cases, the same model had both the highest average log score and the lowest worst-case log score.