Table 3.

Summaries of model performance for predictions of incidence in the peak week. The “All Weeks” group summarizes results for all combinations of target week in the test period and prediction horizon; the “Before Peak” group summarizes results for predictions in weeks before the actual peak for the given season.

			Summary of Log Scores
Disease	Subset	Model	Min	Mean
Dengue	All Weeks	Null KCDE	−3.221	−0.973
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−3.239	−0.933
		Periodic KCDE	−3.037	−0.771
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−2.802	−0.739
		HHH4	−4.816	−0.901
		SARIMA	−3.088	−0.836
		Equal Bin Probabilities	−2.398	−2.398
	Before Peak	Null KCDE	−3.221	−1.570
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−3.239	−1.531
		Periodic KCDE	−3.037	−1.315
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−2.802	−1.282
		HHH4	−4.816	−1.600
		SARIMA	−3.088	−1.361
		Equal Bin Probabilities	−2.398	−2.398
Influenza	All Weeks	Null KCDE	−3.487	−1.423
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−3.483	−1.311
		Periodic KCDE	−4.528	−1.337
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−4.678	−1.313
		SARIMA	−5.714	−1.140
		Equal Bin Probabilities	−3.296	−3.296
	Before Peak	Null KCDE	−3.487	−2.538
		Full Bandwidth KCDE	−3.483	−2.363
		Periodic KCDE	−4.528	−2.518
		Periodic, Full Bandwidth KCDE	−4.678	−2.471
		SARIMA	−5.714	−2.190
		Equal Bin Probabilities	−3.296	−3.296

The model in bold font had the highest mean log score within each combination of disease and weeks subset. The model in italicized and underlined font had the lowest minimum log score within each combination of disease and weeks subset. In some cases, the same model had both the highest average log score and the lowest worst-case log score. There were 42 weeks before the peak in the 2009/2010 dengue season, 15 in the 2010/2011 dengue season, 19 in the 2011/2012 dengue season, 31 in the 2012/2013 dengue season, 23 in the 2011/2012 influenza season, and 12 in each of the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 influenza seasons.