Figure 1.

Model fits with to data from 4 hypothetical sets of trials. The dashed blue diagonal lines are 95% prediction bands. The solid black vertical lines at the points are 95% confidence intervals for the observed effect of treatment on true endpoint. A prediction separation score larger than 1 says that leftmost and rightmost prediction intervals (represented by the dashed red vertical lines) do not overlap (indicated by no intersection with the horizontal dashed green line).