Table 3.

Observed and estimated 7 year risk in each baseline cohort under no intervention, HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration

Baseline period	Outcome	Observed risk at 7 years, %	Estimated risk at 7 years, % (95% CI)**
Jan 1, 1996 – Dec 31, 1999	Mortality	9.5	9.3 (8.8, 9.9)
	AIDS or death	16.2	16.6 (16.0, 17.3)
Jan 1, 2000 – Dec 31, 2002	Mortality	8.3	8.2 (7.8, 8.7)
	AIDS or death	15.4	16.0 (15.4, 16.7)
Jan 1, 2003 onwards	Mortality	4.6	4.4 (4.2, 4.7)
	AIDS or death	9.5	9.5 (9.2, 9.8)

^**HIV-CAUSAL estimates based on the parametric g-formula adjusted for measured time-varying confounders (CD4 count, HIV-RNA and AIDS) and baseline characteristics (calendar period and age of HIV diagnosis, risk group, gender, geographical origin, ethnicity and cohort). CI: confidence interval