Table 4.
Diagnostic performance for malaria VA using the EIR-mortality relationship as gold standard
| Neo-natal | Post-neonatal | Child (1–4) | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimates of numbers of deaths | ||||
| a: Malaria by VA, exposure attributable | 7.7 | 141.1 | 243.1 | 391.9 |
| b: Malaria by VA, not attributable | 0.3 | 172.9 | 70.9 | 244.1 |
| c: Other causes by VA, exposure attributable | 64.3 | 436.3 | 605.0 | 1105.6 |
| d: Other causes by VA, not attributable | 251.7 | 586.7 | 527.0 | 1365.4 |
| Derived quantities | ||||
| Overall all-cause mortality rate (deaths/1000 person-years) (from Table 1) | 296.6 | 140.4 | 51.6 | 80.4 |
| % of deaths assigned malaria as cause in VA (a + b)/(a + b + c + d) (%) | 2.5 | 23.5 | 21.7 | 20.5 |
| % of deaths attributable to malaria exposure (a + c)/(a + b + c + d) (%) | 26.3 | 43.2 | 63.9 | 48.2 |
| Malaria specific mortality rate estimated from VAs (deaths/1000 person-years) | 7.3 | 33.0 | 11.2 | 16.5 |
| Malaria exposure attributable mortality rate (deaths/1000 person-years) | 78.0 | 60.7 | 33.0 | 38.8 |
| Sensitivity of VA (a/(a + c)) | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Specificity of VA (d/(d + b)) | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| Positive predictive value of VA (PPV) (a/(a + b)) | 0.96 | 0.45 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| Negative predictive value of VA (NPV) (d/(c + d)) | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.55 |
For consistency across age groups, rates are expressed as deaths per 1000 person-years, rather than relative to numbers of live births (which is the usual convention for deaths in the first year of life)