Table 4.
Parameter estimates obtained for season 2000–2001 under different assumptions for vaccine efficacy (VE) or generation time (GT), or under model variants
Model variant | AIC | R 2 | Transmissibility θ | Susceptible fraction S 0 | Reporting rate ρ (%) | RE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline | 549·4 | C 0·99 A 0·90 E 0·26 Tot 0·97 | C 0·375 A–E 0·179 | C 1·0 A 0·775 E 0·275 | 19·7 | 1·36 |
VE = 50% | 556·9 | C 0·99 A 0·90 E 0·21 Tot 0·97 | C 0·375 A–E 0·178 | C 1·0 A 0·777 E 0·304 | 19·8 | 1·36 |
GT = 2·6 days | 546·7 | C 0·99 A 0·92 E 0·28 Tot 0·97 | C 0·449 A–E 0·223 | C 1·0 A 0·772 E 0·272 | 21·7 | 1·31 |
GT = 4 days | 558·2 | C 0·99 A 0·85 E 0 Tot 0·96 | C 0·277 A–E 0·118 | C 1·0 A 0·786 E 0·282 | 16·7 | 1·50 |
θC = θA = θE | 722·9 | C 0·98 A 0·58 E 0 Tot 0·89 | 0·335 | C 1·0 A 0·545 E 0·243 | 22·0 | 1·32 |
θC ≠ θA ≠ θE | 548·2 | C 0·99 A 0·90 E 0·33 Tot 0·97 | C 0·376 A 0·181 E 0·089 | C 1·0 A 0·772 E 0·309 | 19·6 | 1·37 |
θC = θA = θE ρC ≠ ρA ≠ ρE | 556·3 | C 0·99 A 0·96 E 0·41 Tot 0·99 | 0·284 | C 1·0 A 0·837 E 0·351 | C 20·3 A 5·9 E 2·9 | 1·35 |