Table C3.
Estimated number of true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives, with associated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values (95% confidence intervals), for the 60% early stage target given performance similar to 2013 and tumours counts as in 2013 for reporting periods of 1, 2.5 and 9 years.
| Reporting period | 1 year |
2.5 years |
9 years |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected value | (95% CI) | Expected value | (95% CI) | Expected value | (95% CI) | |
| True positives | 21 | (13, 50) | 23 | (15, 32) | 25 | (16, 35) |
| False positives | 19 | (11, 28) | 11 | (6, 18) | 5 | (1, 10) |
| True negatives | 161 | (149, 172) | 169 | (157, 179) | 175 | (164, 185) |
| False negatives | 8 | (3, 14) | 6 | (2, 11) | 4 | (1, 8) |
| Sensitivity | 0.73 | (0.56, 0.89) | 0.80 | (0.64, 0.93) | 0.88 | (0.73, 0.97) |
| Specificity | 0.89 | (0.85, 0.94) | 0.94 | (0.90, 0.97) | 0.97 | (0.94, 0.99) |
| Positive predictive value | 0.52 | (0.37, 0.68) | 0.67 | (0.50, 0.82) | 0.83 | (0.68, 0.95) |
| Negative predictive value | 0.95 | (0.92, 0.98) | 0.97 | (0.94, 0.99) | 0.68 | (0.96, 0.99) |