TABLE 3.

Accuracy measures for the arthritis surveillance criteria.

Criterion	Parameter	Sex	Age (Year)	Posterior Median (95% PI)
				Model with Distinct Sensitivity for 4 Sub-Populations Stratified by Age and Sex	Model with Identical Sensitivity for Men and Women, and Distinct Sensitivity by Age
DDx	Se	Men	18–64	22.0% (11.1%, 48.3%)	50.0% (39.0%, 64.2%)
	Se	Women	18–64	34.1% (24.3%, 62.3%)	Identical to above
	Se	Men	≥65	67.9% (59.4%, 76.1%)	71.5% (64.5%, 80.5%)
	Se	Women	≥65	74.9% (67.4%, 82.0%)	Identical to above
	Sp	Both	Both	87.2% (82.5%, 96.1%)	95.8% (94.2%, 97.2%)
CJS	Se	Men	18–64	62.7% (43.6%, 72.5%)	46.8% (38.2%, 60.3%)
	Se	Women	18–64	64.9% (46.1%, 73.9%)	Identical to above
	Se	Men	≥65	69.1% (55.5%, 75.4%)	64.2% (59.7%, 70.2%)
	Se	Women	≥65	74.1% (64.9%, 80.5%)	Identical to above
	Sp	Both	Both	83.3% (75.1%, 91.8%)	74.8% (72.1%, 77.3%)
S-3M	Se	Men	18–64	87.4% (79.5%, 94.4%)	94.1% (93.3%, 94.9%)
	Se	Women	18–64	88.8% (80.4%, 94.7%)	Identical to above
	Se	Men	≥65	93.1% (89.1%, 94.9%)	94.3% (93.6%, 95.1%)
	Se	Women	≥65	93.4% (90.8%, 95.1%)	Identical to above
	Sp	Both	Both	15.2% (1.6%, 51.3%)	18.8% (17.5%, 20.7%)

CJS: chronic joint symptoms, DDx: doctor-diagnosed arthritis; PI: probability interval; S-3M: symptoms onset exceeded 3 months; Se: sensitivity; Sp: specificity.