Table S6.

Tests of anticipatory behavior on environmental outcomes in Indonesian oil palm plantations 4–8 y before certification by the RSPO

Outcome variable	Model Component	Metric	NM	NC	NR	I	D	C
Deforestation	Certification	Coef	−0.64***	−0.27	−0.57***	−0.22	−0.30	−0.64**
		P	<0.001	0.11	0.0016	0.29	0.18	0.024
	Precertification	Coef	0.41***	0.25	0.39**	0.31**	0.37***	0.62***
		P	0.0041	0.12	0.015	0.020	0.0018	0.0041
	Temperature	Coef	0.0096***	0.0073***	0.0093***	0.010***	0.0098***	0.0085***
		P	<0.001	0.0010	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
	Precipitation	Coef	1.1**	4.2***	2.3***	3.0***	3.0***	2.9*
		P	0.021	<0.001	0.0068	<0.001	0.0036	0.069
	Constant	Coef	−147***	−112***	−142***	−161***	−150***	−133***
		P	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
	N, control		1473	0	173	395	295	55
	N, treatment		89	89	89	73	64	44
	N, districts (clusters)		133	34	71	91	29	40
Primary Forest Clearing	Certification	Coef	−0.81***	−0.37*	−0.76***	−0.67***	−0.64**	−1.1***
		P	<0.001	0.069	<0.001	0.0054	0.011	<0.001
	Precertification	Coef	0.30	0.12	0.29	0.24	0.25	0.50
		P	0.11	0.54	0.15	0.22	0.29	0.13
	Temperature	Coef	0.0099***	0.0092***	0.0097***	0.012***	0.011***	0.0099***
		P	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.0024
	Precipitation	Coef	1.12	6.4***	2.7**	2.8**	2.9**	2.7
		P	0.11	<0.001	0.038	0.013	0.041	0.21
	Constant	Coef	−154***	−141***	−148***	−184***	−163***	−153***
		P	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.0019
	N, control		1236	0	148	295	225	48
	N, treatment		71	71	71	56	46	30
	N, districts (clusters)		125	30	63	78	25	34
Peatland Forest Clearing	Certification	Coef	−0.68***	−0.43	−0.67**	−0.97***	−0.69**	−1.5***
		P	0.0054	0.15	0.012	<0.001	0.026	<0.001
	Precertification	Coef	0.22	0.17	0.26	0.47	0.48*	0.98***
		P	0.25	0.50	0.19	0.15	0.094	0.0023
	Temperature	Coef	0.0094***	0.0041	0.0070***	0.0086***	0.0075***	0.0090***
		P	<0.001	0.24	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.0027
	Precipitation	Coef	1.7**	5.9***	2.8*	2.5*	2.6	2.8
		P	0.035	0.010	0.057	0.052	0.11	0.41
	Constant	Coef	−144***	−66	−110***	−134***	−117***	−140***
		P	<0.001	0.20	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.0021
	N, control		597	0	70	132	112	14
	N, treatment		33	33	33	20	23	9
	N, districts (clusters)		79	19	42	44	16	13
Fire Rate	Certification	Coef	−0.80***	0.10	−0.61***	−0.39**	−0.38***	−0.51*
		P	<0.001	0.71	<0.001	0.017	0.010	0.099
	Precertification	Coef	−0.21	−0.27	−0.21	−0.26	−0.22	−0.49
		P	0.12	0.13	0.16	0.11	0.26	0.11
	Temperature	Coef	0.0095***	0.011***	0.0091***	0.011***	0.011***	0.0097***
		P	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
	Precipitation	Coef	−2.5***	−3.3**	−1.6	−3.4***	−3.3***	0.097
		P	<0.001	0.023	0.30	<0.001	<0.001	0.96
	Constant	Coef	−144***	−170***	−138***	−169***	−164***	−147***
		P	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
	N, control		1473	0	173	395	295	55
	N, treatment		89	89	89	73	64	44
	N, districts (clusters)		133	34	71	91	29	40

The anticipatory model is described in Temporal Effects and Parallel Trends. A full description of matching and subsampling methods is provided in SI Text, Matching and Subsetting. For each outcome variable, columns compare models estimated on differently matched subsets of the dataset. We present coefficients of certification (Coef), the P value associated with the certification coefficient, and the number (N) of controls, treatments, and administrative districts. Three models use unmatched samples: NM, no matching; NC, no matching, restricted to certified plantations; and NR, no matching, restricted to RSPO member plantations. Models using matched samples through 2003 include: I, simple matching within island; D, matching within district; and C, matching within RSPO member company. Asterisks indicate degree of coefficient significance (*P < 0.10, **P < 0.05, ***P < 0.01).