Table 1.
Discrete Time Event History Analysis to Predict the Odds of Taking a First and an Additional Documented U.S. Trip in year=t+l from independent variables defined in year t: 1972 to 2011
| Corrected Model | Published model | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Departed on first trip with documents (year=t+l) | Departed on first trip with documents (year=t+l) | Difference Between Models | |||||||
| Independent Variables | β | SE | β | SE | t-test | ||||
| Demographic Background | |||||||||
| Age | 0.0565 | ** | 0.0170 | 0.0721 | *** | 0.0175 | -0.9114545 | ||
| Age-squared | -0.0010 | *** | 0.0002 | -0.0010 | *** | 0.0002 | 0 | ||
| Female | 0.0723 | 0.1330 | 0.7394 | *** | 0.1362 | -4.9880663 | *** | ||
| Married | -0.3160 | ** | 0.1132 | -0.2380 | ** | 0.1148 | -0.6868035 | ||
| No. of minors in household | -0.0632 | ** | 0.0301 | -0.0805 | ** | 0.0299 | 0.57563436 | ||
| Human Capital | |||||||||
| Labor force experience | -0.0056 | 0.0084 | -0.0148 | * | 0.0079 | 1.10957941 | |||
| Education | 0.1065 | *** | 0.0111 | 0.1283 | *** | 0.0113 | -1.9558235 | * | |
| Agricultural job | --- | --- | |||||||
| Unskilled job | -0.1243 | 0.0981 | -0.2619 | ** | 0.0978 | 1.40364192 | |||
| Skilled job | -0.2493 | * | 0.1351 | 0.0231 | 0.1358 | -2.0138738 | * | ||
| Social Capital | |||||||||
| Parent a U.S. Migrant | 0.4326 | *** | 0.1184 | 0.0256 | 0.1149 | 3.46113452 | ** | ||
| No of U.S. migrant siblings | 0.0662 | ** | 0.0318 | -0.0476 | 0.0312 | 3.594282 | ** | ||
| Spouse a U.S. migrant | -0.624 | ** | 0.2473 | -0.7714 | ** | 0.2418 | 0.59911515 | ||
| No. of U.S. migrant children | 0.2885 | *** | 0.0421 | 0.1569 | *** | 0.0434 | 3.10375162 | ** | |
| No. of U.S. born children | -1.1886 | ** | 0.3703 | -1.8225 | *** | 0.4666 | 1.61484547 | ||
| Prop U.S. Migrants in Community | 0.0362 | *** | 0.0033 | 0.0198 | *** | 0.0035 | 4.91125306 | *** | |
| Physical Capital | |||||||||
| Land | -0.1930 | 0.1648 | -0.1750 | 0.1627 | -0.1095458 | ||||
| Home | -0.3153 | ** | 0.1025 | -0.2514 | ** | 0.1043 | -0.6208959 | ||
| Business | -0.2474 | + | 0.1517 | -0.1985 | 0.1529 | -0.3217588 | |||
| Documentation | |||||||||
| Temporary Visa | 5.9135 | *** | 0.1232 | 4.6272 | *** | 0.1229 | 10.446623 | *** | |
| Legalized under IRCA | -0.2856 | 0.2342 | -0.6433 | *** | 0.1699 | 1.63075168 | |||
| U.S. Social Context | |||||||||
| Border Patrol Budget ($2013) [Divided by 1000] | -0.2605 | + | 0.1596 | -0.2765 | * | 0.1628 | 0.09978845 | ||
| Rate of Employment Growth | 0.0579 | * | 0.0334 | 0.0623 | * | 0.0338 | -0.1313731 | ||
| Residence / Work Visas per Capita | 0.0001 | 0.0002 | 0.0002 | 0.0003 | -0.352601 | ||||
| Mexican Context | |||||||||
| Crude Birth Rate | -0.0261 | 0.0173 | -0.0326 | * | 0.0176 | 0.37422349 | |||
| Rate of GDP Growth | -0.0274 | ** | 0.0118 | -0.0295 | ** | 0.0119 | 0.17761839 | ||
| Homicide Rate | 0.0029 | 0.0191 | 0.0053 | 0.0195 | -0.1250495 | ||||
| Community size | |||||||||
| > 100,000 | --- | --- | |||||||
| 10,000-99,999 | -0.7756 | *** | 0.1161 | -1.0666 | *** | 0.1183 | 2.49553633 | * | |
| 2501-9,999 | -1.0444 | *** | 0.1182 | -1.3150 | *** | 0.1215 | 2.27467021 | * | |
| <=2500 | -1.0072 | *** | 0.1470 | -1.3807 | *** | 0.1472 | 2.54001804 | * | |
| Intercept | -6.8186 | *** | 0.9094 | -5.1997 | *** | 0.9265 | -1.7724857 | ||
| Likelihood Ratio | 1937.1301 | *** | 1700.6557 | *** | |||||
| Wald | 3071.1172 | *** | 2115.5368 | *** | |||||
| Total number of person-years | 641,587 | 193.012 | |||||||
+
p=.10;
*
p<.10;
**
p<.05;
***
p<.001