Table 1.
Summary table for estimated model parameters by fitting 2014 Guangdong cities weekly confirmed dengue data to the Richards model.
| City | Time interval | Growth rate r (95% CI) | Case number K (95% CI) | Turning point (week) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guangzhou | W33~W44 | 0.56 (0.51, 0.61) |
36,342 (35,753, 36,932) |
40 |
| Foshan | W25~W50 | 0.86 (0.73, 0.98) |
3550 (3,529, 3,571) |
40 |
| Zhongshan | W27~W46 | 0.69 (0.62, 0.76) |
673 (666, 679) |
40 |
| Jiangmen | W34~W48 | 0.94 (0.47, 1.41) |
590 (577, 604) |
40 |
| Zhuhai | W36~W53 | 0.94 (0.61, 1.26) |
508 (502, 513) |
41 (40.06) |
| Shenzhen | W36~W44 | 1.39 (0.72, 2.06) |
385 (367, 403) |
41 |
| Qingyuan | W33~W53 | 1.29 (0.57, 2.02) |
297 (293, 301) |
41 |
| Dongguan | W36~W44 | 1.22 (0.90, 1.55) |
267 (262, 273) |
40 |
| Zhaoqing | W37~W46 | 2.38 (1.96, 2.80) |
275 (274, 276) |
41 (40.04) |
| Chaozhou | W38~W53 | 1.00 (0.34, 1.65) |
137 (134, 140) |
42 |
| Maoming | W37~W48 | 0.72 (0.40, 1.03) |
91 (88, 94) |
42 |
| Guangdong | W23~W53 | 0.63 (0.58, 0.68) |
44,984 (44,812, 45,157) |
40 |