Table 2.
Summary table for estimated model parameters by fitting 2014 Guangzhou districts weekly confirmed dengue data to the Richards model.
| District | Time interval | Growth rate r (95% CI) | Case number K (95% CI) | Turning point (week) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuexiu | W25~W53 | 0.35 (0.33, 0.36) |
4,779 (4,761, 4,798) |
40 |
| Baiyun | W26~W53 | 0.87 (0.76, 0.97) |
11,803 (11,751, 11,855) |
40 |
| Haizhu | W26~W53 | 0.65 (0.62, 0.68) |
5,984 (5,970, 5,998) |
40 |
| Liwan | W27~W53 | 0.63 (0.56, 0.69) |
4,452 (4,429, 4,474) |
40 |
| Panyu | W29~W53 | 0.69 (0.64, 0.74) |
3,533 (3,522, 3,544) |
40 |
| Tianhe | W31~W53 | 0.75 (0.66, 0.83) |
3,418 (3,401, 3,436) |
40 |
| Huangpu | W32~W53 | 0.71 (0.63, 0.78) |
1,804 (1,795, 1,814) |
41 |
| Conghua | W33~W53 | 1.69 (0.89, 2.50) |
105 (104, 106) |
41 |
| Huadu | W35~W53 | 1.38 (0.65, 2.10) |
543 (536, 549) |
41 |
| Nansha | W35~W48 | 0.24 (0.20, 0.28) |
476 (465, 487) |
41 |
| Zengcheng | W36~W45 | 0.99 (0.70, 1.28) |
339 (331, 347) |
41 |