Figure 4. This table shows a comparison of: (i) the completely uninformed prior belief regarding p₂ – p₁ when the non-informative prior for each of p₁ and p₂ is Beta(1, 1) versus (ii) the posterior belief regarding p₂ – p₁ when the priors have been updated based on the observed data.

For example, our prior belief regarding the probability that p₂ – p₁ > 0 was 50%; our updated belief based on our data is now 92%. Similarly, our prior belief regarding the probability that p₂ – p₁ > 0.20 was 32%; our updated belief incorporating our data is now 67%.