Table 1.

Status quo and e-cigarette substitution, premature deaths and life years lost for all cohorts, men and women combined

Outcome	Year 2016	2026	2060	2080	2100	Cumulative (2016–2100)	Deaths prevented/life years gained*	% Change relative to status quo
Status Quo Scenario†
Premature deaths	4 61 588	4 70 743	3 16 556	1 67 037	2905	26 065 448
Life years lost	5 689 458	5 625 286	2 626 503	6 85 593	1852	248 639 532
Optimistic Scenario‡
Premature deaths	4 61 588	3 80 832	2 33 243	56 399	459	19 484 289	6 581 159	25.2%
Life years lost	5 689 458	3 839 765	1 345 385	1 83 297	294	161 905 579	86 733 953	34.9%
Pessimistic Scenario§
Premature deaths	4 61 588	4 56 297	2 98 689	1 27 706	2188	24 432 065	1 633 383	6.3%
Life years lost	5 689 458	5 261 398	2 319 388	5 28 926	1396	227 835 203	20 804 329	8.4%

*Life years gained=life years lost in Status Quo Scenario − Life years lost in E-cigarette Substitution Scenario.

†Status Quo Scenario: smoking rates evolve from initial 2016 levels based on age, gender and cohort-specific smoking initiation and cessation rates in the absence of e-cigarette use.

‡Optimistic Scenario: e-cigarettes excess risk 5% of smoking, 5% of the population continues to initiate cigarette smoking or remain as smokers, the remainder of never smokers then initiate e-cigarette use at the rate of cigarette smoking initiation in the Status Quo Scenario, and both smokers and e-cigarette users quit at the rate of smokers in the Status Quo Scenario.

§Pessimistic Scenario: e-cigarettes excess risk 40% of smoking, 10% of the population continues to initiate cigarette smoking or remain as smokers, the remainder of never smokers then initiate e-cigarette use at the 150% rate of cigarette smoking initiation in the Status Quo Scenario, and e-cigarette users quit at 50% of the rate of smokers in the Status Quo Scenario and smokers quit at the Status Quo cessation rate.