Table 2.

Status quo and e-cigarette substitution, premature deaths and life years lost, men and women born in 2001 (age 15 years in 2016)

Outcomes	Year	2016	2026	2056	Cumulative (2016–2100)	Deaths prevented/life years gained*	% Change relative to status quo
	Age, years	15	25	55
Male
Status Quo Scenario†
Prevalence	Never smoker	95.5%	75.5%	72.8%
	Cigarette smoker	4.5%	21.7%	10.6%
	Former smoker	0.0%	2.8%	16.7%
Premature deaths		0	0	1381	176 915
Life years lost		0	0	43 507	2101 908
Optimistic Scenario‡
Prevalence	Never smoker	95.5%	75.5%	72.5%
	Cigarette smoker	4.5%	5.0%	2.1%
	Former smoker>age 40 years	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%
	E-cigarettes exclusive	0.0%	16.7%	8.7%
	Former smoker<age 40 years	0.0%	2.8%	10.5%
	E-cigarette/former smoker	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	Former E-cigarette user	0.0%	0.0%	4.9%
Premature deaths		0	0	301	29 556	147 359	83.3%
Life years lost		0	0	9496	402 823	1699 085	80.8%
Pessimistic Scenario§
Premature deaths		0	0	1247	141 287	35 629	20.1%
Life years lost		0	0	39 308	1793 892	308 016	14.7%
Female
Status Quo Scenario†
Prevalence	Never smoker	97.6%	82.8%	79.4%
	Cigarette smoker	2.4%	15.2%	8.3%
	Former smoker	0.0%	2.1%	12.3%
Premature deaths		0	0	369	63 244
Life years lost		0	0	12 513	711 172
Optimistic Scenario‡
Prevalence	Never smoker	97.6%	82.8%	79.4%
	Cigarette smoker	2.4%	5.0%	2.1%
	Former smoker>age 40 years	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%
	E-cigarettes exclusive	0.0%	10.2%	6.2%
	Former smoker<age 40 years	0.0%	2.1%	7.5%
	E-cigarette/former smoker	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	Former e-cigarette user	0.0%	0.0%	3.5%
Premature deaths		0	0	109	14 297	48 947	77.4%
Life years lost		0	0	3687	181 846	529 326	74.7%
Pessimistic Scenario§
Premature deaths		0	0	387	61 469	1775	2.8%
Life years lost		0	0	13 106	737 757	−26 585	−3.7%

*Life years gained=life years lost in Status Quo − Life years lost in E-cigarette Substitution Scenario.

†Status Quo Scenario: Smoking Rates evolve from initial 2016 levels based on age, gender and cohort-specific smoking initiation and cessation rates in the absence of e-cigarette use.

‡Optimistic Scenario: e-cigarettes excess risk 5% of smoking, 5% of the population continues to initiate cigarette smoking or remain as smokers, the remainder of never smokers then initiate e-cigarette use at the rate of cigarette smoking initiation in the Status Quo Scenario, and both smokers and e-cigarette users quit at the rate of smokers in the Status Quo Scenario.

§Pessimistic Scenario: e-cigarettes excess risk 40% of smoking, 10% of the population continues to initiate cigarette smoking or remain as smokers, the remainder of never smokers then initiate e-cigarette use at the 150% rate of cigarette smoking initiation in the Status Quo Scenario, and e-cigarette users quit at 50% of the rate of smokers in the Status Quo Scenario and smokers quit at the Status Quo cessation rate.