Table 1. Parameters affecting Port of LA’s decision whether or not to harden terminals at next upgrade and the treatment of the uncertainty in those parameters.
Height and hardening cost values for a decision regarding PoLA terminals is discussed in Sections 3 and 4.
| Robust Decision Making Uncertainty Characterization | Full Probabilistic Uncertainty Characterization | |
|---|---|---|
| Future Sea-level | Well-characterized joint probability distribution for a, b, and c. | Well-characterized joint probability distribution for a, b, c, c*, and t*. |
| Sea-level rise in 2011 (a) | ||
| Normal rate of sea-level rise (b) | ||
| Normal sea-level rise acceleration (c) | ||
| Rate of abrupt sea-level rise (c*) | Deeply uncertain with range: 0 to 30 mm/yr | |
| Year abrupt rise begins (t*) | Deeply uncertain with range: 2010 to 2100 | |
| Daily anomaly location (μ) |
Deeply uncertain set of GEV distributions, with scale ranging from ψ = 517 to 569 mm, constant shape ξ = -0.305, and location μ = -176+0.1033(ψ-517) mm (constant mean). |
Set of GEV distributions with constant shape ξ = -0.305, uniform distribution over scale 517 mm ≤ψ≤543mm, and corresponding location μ = -176 mm+0.1033(ψ-517mm) |
| Daily anomaly scale (ψ) | ||
| Daily anomaly shape (ξ) | ||
| Future Terminal Management | ||
| Lifetime (L) | Deeply uncertain with range: 30 to 100 years | Consider a range of 30 to 100 years |
| Max allowable overtop probability (Pcrit) | Deeply uncertain with range: 5% to 50% per year | Consider uniform distribution over range 5% to 50% per year |
| Decision Year | Known at decision time: 2020 | Known at decision time: 2020 |
| Height (H) above mean sea-level | Known at decision time: 2804 mm | Known at decision time: 2804 mm |
| Current hardening cost (CHarden/ Cupgrade) | Known at decision time: 1% | Known at decision time: 1% |
| Discount rate (d) | Known at decision time: 5% | Known at decision time: 5% |