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. 2018 Feb 6;8:2496. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-20187-6

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Model selection and variable importance. (a) AIC_c values for the 200 top models for percentage of the southern lineage. Horizontal red line separates models with AIC_c less than 2 units away from the “best” model. (b) Relative importance of predictors, considering all models. Relative importance is the sum of weights for the models in which the variable appears. Vertical red line indicates the 0.8 cutoff used to separate important variables.