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. 2018 Feb 7;8:2537. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-20887-z

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Brazil’s cropland area from 1975 to 2050, and effects of future cropland intensification (scenarios 1 and 2) and P input reduction strategies (scenarios 3 and 4) on annual P fertilizer demand (B), annual crop P offtake (C) and annual P surplus (D). Scenario 1 - intensify existing cropland area; Scenario 2 - intensify existing cropland area + expand cropland into native Cerrado and degraded pasture areas; Scenario 3 – ratio of P inputs:outputs in cropland areas is 1:1; Scenario 4 – ratio of P inputs:outputs in cropland areas is 0.5:1. Coloured bands give the uncertainty surrounding each scenario prediction.