Table 3.
Extrapolation of the actual performance for the marathon distance
| Parameter | Scenarios for running a marathon at the age of 95 years
|
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistica | Moderateb | Optimisticc | |
| Speed (y) versus lap (x) | y=−0.113 x + 4.798 | y=−0.075 x + 5.378 | y=−0.038 + 5.958 |
| End speed (at x=45.2)d | −0.31 km/h | 1.99 km/h | 4.24 km/h |
| Start speed (at x=1) | 4.69 km/h | 5.30 km/h | 5.92 km/h |
| Average speede | 2.19 km/h | 3.65 km/h | 5.08 km/h |
| Marathon time | ---f | 11.6 h | 8.3 h |
Notes:
a
The pessimistic scenario considers that the athlete develops maximal fatigue, i.e., the highest slope value and the lowest y-intercept value of 95% CI are applied.
b
The moderate scenario considers that the speed follows the average trend across time, i.e., the best-fit values are applied.
c
The optimistic scenario considers that the athlete develops minimal fatigue, i.e., the lowest slope value and the highest y-intercept value of 95% CI are applied.
d
42.195 km/0.934 km per lap=45.2 laps.
e
It is calculated as the quotient (start speed + end speed)/2.
f
Since the end speed is negative, the athlete will be expected to abandon the race at the (4.798/0.113=42.4) 43rd lap or 39.6 km.