Table 1. Main parameters used in the quantitative microbial risk assessment and susceptible-infected-recovered models developed to simulate waterborne diarrheal infections in children < 5 in Puri District due to Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water from deep (DTW) and shallow (STW) tubewells over two monsoon seasons.
Parameter Symbol (Fig 1): Description (distribution) | Parameter value(s) of distribution or point estimate | Source |
---|---|---|
QMRA parameter set | ||
MR: Method recovery (beta binomial) Crypto. mean = 55%, Giardia mean = 34% |
Crypto. = α = 1.9, β = 1.9 Giardia = α = 3.0, β = 6.0 |
[15] |
V: Viability (beta binomial) Crypto. mean = 38%, Giardia mean = 13% |
Crypto. α = 1.65, β = 2.46 Giardia α = 2.93, β = 17.4 |
[25, 26] |
H (HUM scenario): Mean fraction of human parasites | Crypto. = 100%, Giardia = 100% | [15, 27–29] |
H (ENV scenario): Mean fraction of human parasites | Crypto. = 6%, Giardia = < 1% | [15, 27–29] |
H (MST scenario): Mean fraction of human parasites | DTW 2012 = 50%, STW 2012 = 16% DTW 2013 = 20%, STW 2013 = 33% |
[15, 30–38] |
(ENV and MST scenario): Mean fraction of non-human parasites infectious-to-humans [zoonotic faction] | Crypto. = 41%, Giardia = 19% | [15, 30–38] |
Sp (HUM, ENV, MST scenarios): Mean fraction of parasites of a species infectious-to-humans | ||
LR: Reduction from boiling water | Crypto. = 6 Log10, Giardia = 6 Log10 | [39] |
L: Liters of water ingested per day (uniform) | a = 0.893, b = 1.39 | [40, 41] |
r: Exponential dose response parameter (triangular dist.)* |
Crypto. = a = 0.00021, c = 0.0042, b = 0.0500 Giardia = a = 0.0097, c = 0.0198, b = 0.0358 |
[42–44] |
SIR parameter set | ||
TW: Probability of using a particular tubewell type | DTW = p = 48% STW = p = 52% |
Base line survey |
B: Probability of boiling tubewell water before drinking (Bernoulli) | DTW = p = 9% STW = p = 16% |
Base line survey |
P(s): Morbidity ratio for diarrheic infection (Bernoulli, where p is uniform**) |
Crypto. = p = a = 29%, b = 68% Giardia = p = a = 49%, b = 59% |
[9, 45–47] |
D: Duration of illness (gamma) Crypto. mean = 10 days, Giardia mean = 11days |
Crypto. = shape = 1.1, scale = 9.2 Giardia = shape = 3.2, scale = 3.4 |
[17, 48–51] |
Re: Reduced recall of diarrhea 2 or more days after occurrence (Bernoulli, where p is uniform**) | p = a = 12%, b = 52% | [52] |
* a, c, b for the triangular distribution are minimum, mode, and maximum respectively.
** a and b for uniform distribution are minimum and maximum.