Table 1.

Results from the spatial and non-spatial district-level regression models: ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) and spatial error regression (SER). The SER model includes a spatially auto-correlated error term which accounts for the fact that variables that are geographically close are more likely to be similar. The size of the HRG in each district, for women, is defined as the proportion of women (15–49 years old) in the district who have had three or more lifetime sex partners (LSPs). The size of the HRG in each district, for men, is defined as the proportion of men (15–49 years old) in the district who have had four or more LSPs

	HIV prevalence, women		HIV prevalence, men
	OLSR	SER	OLSR	SER
Size of the high-risk group (HRG)	0.53***	0.33***	0.30**	0.19***
Constant	0.04	0.06	–0.02	0.02
Lambda	NA	0.63***	NA	0.73***
AIC	–105	–112	–104	–120
R-squared	0.60	0.73	0.28	0.67

Lambda represents the level of auto-correlation in the error term

Asterisks denote the significance level according to the following P-values: ***P < 0.001, **P < 0.01

AIC Akaike information criterion