Table 1.

Annual Tuberculosis Incidence and Annual Percentage Declines, Comparing Reported Data with Model Simulations

	California	Florida	New York	Texas
1993, annual TB incidence per 100,000 persons
Data	16.4	11.8	21	13
Model	15.4 (9.9 to 20.4)	11.9 (7.0 to 17.4)	19.1 (13.7 to 27.1)	13.4 (9.5 to 19.7)
2013, annual TB incidence per 100,000 persons
Data	5.7	3.3	4.4	4.6
Model	6.0 (3.8 to 9.0)	3.3 (1.9 to 5.7)	4.8 (2.9 to 7.3)	4.2 (2.5 to 6.8)
1993–2013, annual decline in TB incidence, %
Data	5.3%	6.3%	7.8%	5.2%
Model	4.7% (1.9 to 7.7)	6.1% (2.5 to 9.9)	7.0% (4.1 to 10.3)	5.8% (2.3 to 9.3)
2025, annual TB incidence per 100,000 persons
Model	5.2 (2.9 to 7.1)	2.5 (0.9 to 4.5)	3.6 (1.8 to 5.5)	2.9 (1.3 to 5.5)
2015–2025, annual decline in TB incidence, %
Model	1.7% (−3.8* to 7.1)	1.5% (−7.4* to 14.0)	1.9% (−6.4* to 9.8)	3.3% (−5.6* to 10.9)

Definition of abbreviation: TB = tuberculosis.

Model estimates are based on the maximum likelihood estimate model and are presented as median (2.5 to 97.5 percentile) estimates.

^*Negative values indicate increases.