Table 3.
Model projections for the UN targets at the end of 2014, 2020 and 2030, in British Columbia
| Year | Prevalence estimates | PHAC prevalence estimates | 2% Decrease in PHAC prevalence estimates | 5% Decrease in PHAC prevalence estimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A) Prevalence estimate scenarios (95% confidence interval) | ||||
| 2014 | 10673 (10433 to 10912) | 11758 (11496 to 12019) | 11489 (11221 to 11757) | 11140 (10877 to 11404) |
| 2020 | 10639 (9885 to 11393) | 12011 (11121 to 12901) | 11639 (10713 to 12564) | 11295 (10388 to 12202) |
| 2030 | 10584 (8959 to 12209) | 12445 (10419 to 14472) | 11892 (9806 to 13978) | 11557 (9511 to 13602) |
| Year | Diagnosed/prevalence | Diagnosed/prevalence1 | Diagnosed/prevalence2 | Diagnosed/prevalence3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B) Percent diagnosed by prevalence estimate scenario (95% confidence interval) | ||||
| 2014 | 83% (83% to 83%) | 76% (75% to 76%) | 77% (77% to 78%) | 80% (79% to 80%) |
| 2020 | 90% (90% to 90%) | 82% (80% to 83%) | 83% (81% to 85%) | 86% (84% to 87%) |
| 2030 | 97% (97% to 97%) | 90% (87% to 92%) | 91% (88% to 94%) | 93% (91% to 96%) |
| Year | On ART/diagnosed | Suppressed1/on ART | Suppressed2/on ART | Suppressed1/prevalence | Suppressed2/prevalence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C) Steps of the UN target (95% confidence interval) | |||||
| 2014 | 78% (77% to 80%) | 84% (82% to 86%) | 94% (93% to 95%) | 55% (54% to 56%) | 62% (61% to 63%) |
| 2020 | 91% (88% to 93%) | 90% (85% to 95%) | 97% (94% to 99%) | 76% (71% to 81%) | 81% (78% to 84%) |
| 2030 | 99% (99% to 100%) | 97% (92% to 100%) | 99% (96% to 100%) | 98% (95% to 100%) | 98% (97% to 100%) |
Prevalence, adjusted PHAC estimates; Prevalence1, Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) prevalence estimates; Prevalence2, 2% decrease in PHAC prevalence estimates; Prevalence3, 5% Decrease in PHAC prevalence estimates; Suppressed1, having an undetectable viral load (<200 copies/ml) at all tests; Suppressed2, last viral load <200 copies/ml; UN, United Nations. See Tables S2, S3, S4 for model fit and forecast estimates.