Table 2.
Model estimates predicting progression to last birth. Column values are exponentiated coefficients for the variables in the given model, followed by 95% confidence intervals in brackets. In simple terms, exponentiating the coefficients gives us a description of how, for a particular woman's realized values for the independent variables, the risk of having an event (e.g. a last birth) increases or decreases relative to the comparison group. For ALB, a value greater than 1 increases the likelihood (risk) of a last birth relative to the base risk, whereas a value less than 1 decreases the likelihood of a last birth relative to the base risk [60]. AIC, Akaike information criterion.
| cohort | cohort + lineality | cohort + fertility | cohort + education | cohort + distance | full | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cohort | (<1955) | ||||||
| 1955–1959 | 1.46 [0.83, 2.54] | 1.35 [0.77, 2.36] | 1.49 [0.85, 2.60] | 1.47 [0.84, 2.56] | 1.35 [0.77, 2.36] | 1.40 [0.80, 2.45] | |
| 1960–1964 | 2.03 [1.15, 3.59] | 1.94 [1.11, 3.42] | 2.23 [1.26, 3.95] | 1.99 [1.12, 3.52] | 1.96 [1.11, 3.46] | 2.07 [1.17, 3.66] | |
| 1965–1969 | 3.39 [1.96, 5.87] | 3.43 [1.99, 5.93] | 2.76 [1.59, 4.78] | 3.38 [1.95, 5.85] | 3.37 [1.95, 5.83] | 2.74 [1.58, 4.75] | |
| 1970–1974 | 3.19 [1.80, 5.65] | 2.96 [1.70, 5.17] | 2.44 [1.37, 4.34] | 3.16 [1.78, 5.59] | 3.04 [1.73, 5.34] | 2.27 [1.28, 4.02] | |
| 1975–1979 | 6.39 [3.63, 11.28] | 6.12 [3.47, 10.80] | 4.42 [2.47, 7.92] | 6.69 [3.77, 11.85] | 6.19 [3.51, 10.91] | 4.42 [2.46, 7.96] | |
| 1980–1984 | 4.85 [2.97, 7.92] | 4.47 [2.77, 7.22] | 3.10 [1.84, 5.23] | 4.99 [3.05, 8.18] | 4.52 [2.79, 7.33] | 2.98 [1.77, 5.01] | |
| 1985–1989 | 4.78 [2.95, 7.72] | 4.44 [2.77, 7.12] | 2.80 [1.64, 4.78] | 5.53 [3.36, 9.11] | 4.52 [2.81, 7.26] | 3.02 [1.75, 5.20] | |
| 1990–1994 | 2.09 [1.20, 3.64] | 2.00 [1.15, 3.47] | 1.22 [0.67, 2.23] | 2.41 [1.36, 4.27] | 1.98 [1.14, 3.45] | 1.31 [0.71, 2.43] | |
| lineality | (matrilineal) | ||||||
| patrilineal | 1.95 [1.40, 2.73] | 1.86 [1.28, 2.70] | |||||
| fertility | 0.82 [0.74, 0.91] | 0.82 [0.74, 0.91] | |||||
| education | (none) | ||||||
| elementary | 1.17 [0.82, 1.68] | 1.28 [0.89, 1.83] | |||||
| middle+ | 0.40 [0.21, 0.76] | 0.43 [0.23, 0.81] | |||||
| distance | 1.02 [1.01, 1.02] | ||||||
| village-level variance | 0.092 | 0.008 | 0.097 | 0.080 | 0.021 | 0.023 | |
| negative log likelihood | −1321.25 | −1315.67 | −1314.28 | −1315.43 | −1316.28 | −1303.616 | |
| d.f. (k) | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 13 | |
| AICi | 2660.5 | 2651.4 | 2648.5 | 2652.9 | 2652.6 | 2633.232 | |
| AICi − AICcohort | 0 | −9.1 | −12.0 | −7.6 | −7.9 | −27.3 |