Table 2.

Transition probabilities for each cycle of the markov model (Unit: %)

	Base-case value	Range	PSA distribution	PSA parameters	Source
Perinatal infection to
Immune tolerance/inactive state	89	80–90	Beta	α = 172.55; β = 30.45	[20, 35]
Immune tolerance/Inactive state to
Chronic hepatitis (years)
< 25	0.43	0.3–0.65	Beta	α = 29.32; β = 6144.29	[19]
≥ 25	3	2.9–7.3	Beta	α = 20.35; β = 378.64	[19]
Chronic hepatitis to
Immune tolerance/inactive state (years)
< 25	9	0–16.3	Beta	α = 3.59; β = 40.49	[19]
≥ 25	10	8.3–16.3	Beta	α = 33.05; β = 235.63	[19]
Compensated cirrhosis (years)
< 25	0.065	0.01–0.12	Beta	α = 5.58; β = 8582.87	[19]
≥ 25	1.5	1–5.7	Beta	α = 7.82; β = 225.69	[19]
HCC	0.5	0.2–1	Beta	α = 8.94; β = 1481.06	[20, 36]
Disease-related death	0.9	0.3–3.6	Beta	α = 5.46; β = 274.46	[20, 36]
Compensated cirrhosis to
Decompensated cirrhosis	5.4	2.8–15	Beta	α = 7.67; β = 78.49	[20, 36]
HCC	3.3	0.5–6.6	Beta	α = 5.19; β = 141.04	[20, 36]
Disease-related death	3.5	0–8	Beta	α = 3.8; β = 91.2	[17, 20]
Decompensated cirrhosis to
HCC	7.1	0.15–10	Beta	α = 3.98; β = 74.46	[17, 20, 36]
Disease-related death	15	9.9–50	Dirichlet	List (20;75;5)	[20, 36]
HCC to
Disease-related death	54	8.1–70	Dirichlet	List (20;75;5)	[20, 36]

HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, PSA probabilistic sensitivity analysis