Table 3.
Estimates of cost parameters, utility, and discount rate
| Base-case value | Range | PSA distribution | PSA parameters | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual expenditure by the government (USD) | |||||
| Budget of PHBPP in 2014 | 1,634,281 | – | – | – | [33] |
| HBV vaccine per capita | 60 | 48–72 | Uniform | low = 48; high = 72 | [9] |
| Antiviral prophylaxis per capita | 369 | 178–559 | Uniform | low = 178; high = 559 | [40] |
| HBV-DNA testing per capita | 66 | 53–79 | Uniform | low = 53; high = 57 | [41] |
| Direct medical cost per capita (USD) | |||||
| Chronic hepatitis | |||||
| Inpatient | 248 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.0167; λ = 0.0001 | – |
| Outpatient | 415 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.134; λ = 0.0032 | – |
| Pharmaceuticals | 157 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.09; λ = 0.00058 | – |
| Compensated cirrhosis | |||||
| Inpatient | 1504 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.034; λ = 0.00002 | – |
| Outpatient | 473 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.11; λ = 0.00023 | – |
| Pharmaceuticals | 125 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.119; λ = 0.00095 | – |
| Decompensated cirrhosis | |||||
| Inpatient | 2602 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.236; λ = 0.00009 | – |
| Outpatient | 189 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.336; λ = 0.00178 | – |
| Pharmaceuticals | 53 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.106; λ = 0.00199 | – |
| HCC | |||||
| Inpatient | 5161 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.232; λ = 0.00005 | – |
| Outpatient | 1108 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.217; λ = 0.0002 | – |
| Pharmaceuticals | 230 | ± 20% | Gamma | α = 0.096; λ = 0.00042 | – |
| Direct non-medical cost (USD) | |||||
| Transportation cost (inpatient) | 25 | ± 20% | Uniform | low = 20; high = 30 | [33, 39] |
| Transportation cost (outpatient) | 5 | ± 20% | Uniform | low = 4; high = 6 | [33, 39] |
| Average number of inpatient visit | |||||
| Chronic hepatitis | 0.07 | 0–0.14 | Gamma | α = 0.027; λ = 0.379 | – |
| Compensated cirrhosis | 0.29 | 0–0.58 | Gamma | α = 0.076; λ = 0.263 | – |
| Decompensated cirrhosis | 0.54 | 0–1.08 | Gamma | α = 0.298; λ = 0.551 | – |
| HCC | 1.53 | 0–3.06 | Gamma | α = 0.366; λ = 0.239 | – |
| Average number of outpatient visit | |||||
| Chronic hepatitis | 4.19 | 0–8.38 | Gamma | α = 0.705; λ = 0.168 | – |
| Compensated cirrhosis | 4.62 | 0–9.24 | Gamma | α = 0.847; λ = 0.183 | – |
| Decompensated cirrhosis | 2.38 | 0–4.76 | Gamma | α = 0.442; λ = 0.186 | – |
| HCC | 8.38 | 0–16.76 | Gamma | α = 0.704; λ = 0.084 | – |
| Daily cost of caregiving (USD) | 59 | ± 20% | Uniform | low = 47; high = 71 | [33, 39] |
| Average days of hospitalization | |||||
| Chronic hepatitis | 0.61 | 0–1.22 | Gamma | α = 0.01; λ = 0.0168 | – |
| Compensated cirrhosis | 3.81 | 0–7.62 | Gamma | α = 0.034; λ = 0.009 | – |
| Decompensated cirrhosis | 6.33 | 0–12.66 | Gamma | α = 0.112; λ = 0.018 | – |
| HCC | 15.63 | 0–31.26 | Gamma | α = 0.2102; λ = 0.0134 | – |
| Average hours spending on outpatient visit | 2 | 1–3 | Uniform | low = 1; high = 3 | [33, 39] |
| Utility | |||||
| Immune tolerance/inactive state | 1 | – | – | – | |
| Chronic hepatitis | 0.73 | 0.63–0.98 | Beta | α = 15.7; β = 3.803 | [44–47] |
| Compensated cirrhosis | 0.65 | 0.35–0.95 | Beta | α = 5.92; β = 3.19 | [44–47] |
| Decompensated cirrhosis | 0.46 | 0.25–0.75 | Beta | α = 7.5; β = 7.5 | [44–47] |
| HCC | 0.46 | 0.16–0.75 | Beta | α = 4.73; β = 5.67 | [44–47] |
| Discount rate (%) | 5 | 3–7 | – | – | [48] |
HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, PHBPP Perinatal Hepatitis B Prevention Program, PSA probabilistic sensitivity analysis