Figure 1.

Estimated Range of Potential Values of Lost US Exports by Stages of Illustrative Outbreak Scenario^1,2

Note: USD=US dollar. The 3 stages depicted here assume the outbreak spreads and is not contained to 1 country (for list of countries in each stage, see Table 1). It assumes a 1‐to‐1 correlation between the outbreak‐related reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) and the reduction in demand for US exports (see Table 2 and Appendix Table 2).