Table 3. Risk of Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma in 8026 Organ Transplant Recipients in Norway From 1968 Through 2012a.
| Variable | Patients, No. | Person-years | No. of SCCs | Unadjusted | Adjusted SIR Ratio (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Expected | SIR (95% CI) | SIR Ratio | ||||
| Graft organ | |||||||
| Kidney | 6177 | 57 000 | 686 | 13.7 | 50.1 (46.4-54.0) | 1 | 1 [Reference] |
| Heart | 695 | 5555 | 110 | 1.3 | 85.2 (70.0-102.7) | 1.51 | 1.78 (1.44-2.20) |
| Lung | 360 | 1819 | 22 | 0.3 | 69.0 (43.3-104.5) | 0.93 | 1.85 (1.20-2.86) |
| Liver | 794 | 5216 | 13 | 0.7 | 18.1 (9.7-31.0) | 0.21 | 0.42 (0.24-0.74) |
| Sex | |||||||
| Female | 2805 | 25 751 | 221 | 4.2 | 52.6 (45.9-60.0) | 1 | 1 [Reference] |
| Male | 5221 | 43 839 | 610 | 11.8 | 51.6 (47.6-55.9) | 0.98 | 1.13 (0.97-1.33) |
| Age at transplantation, y | |||||||
| 0-29 | 1195 | 17 523 | 69 | 0.2 | 318.3 (247.7-402.9) | 1 | 1 [Reference] |
| 30-39 | 1102 | 12 312 | 95 | 0.5 | 191.2 (154.7-233.8) | 0.60 | 0.55 (0.40-0.77) |
| 40-49 | 1504 | 14 118 | 157 | 1.5 | 106.0 (90.1-124.0) | 0.33 | 0.29 (0.21-0.39) |
| 50-59 | 2019 | 14 435 | 216 | 3.9 | 55.1 (48.0-63.0) | 0.17 | 0.15 (0.11-0.20) |
| ≥60 | 2206 | 11 202 | 294 | 9.9 | 29.7 (26.4-33.3) | 0.09 | 0.11 (0.08-0.15) |
| Transplantation period | |||||||
| 1968-1972 | 115 | 1553 | 21 | 0.1 | 171.7 (106.3-262.4) | 1.67 | 0.98 (0.61-1.59) |
| 1973-1977 | 359 | 4039 | 45 | 0.4 | 126.4 (92.2-169.1) | 1.23 | 0.87 (0.61-1.23) |
| 1978-1982 | 404 | 5010 | 48 | 0.6 | 81.0 (59.7-107.4) | 0.79 | 0.73 (0.52-1.02) |
| 1983-1987 | 734 | 8872 | 129 | 1.3 | 102.7 (85.8-122.1) | 1 | 1 [Reference] |
| 1988-1992 | 938 | 11 272 | 199 | 2.2 | 90.7 (78.6-104.3) | 0.88 | 0.96 (0.76-1.20) |
| 1993-1997 | 1007 | 11 248 | 158 | 2.8 | 57.1 (48.6-66.8) | 0.56 | 0.65 (0.51-0.82) |
| 1998-2002 | 1193 | 11 572 | 120 | 3.6 | 33.5 (27.8-40.1) | 0.33 | 0.42 (0.32-0.55) |
| 2003-2007 | 1463 | 10 423 | 73 | 3.4 | 21.5 (16.8-27.0) | 0.21 | 0.31 (0.22-0.42) |
| 2008-2012 | 1813 | 5601 | 38 | 1.8 | 21.6 (15.3-29.7) | 0.21 | 0.44 (0.30-0.66) |
| Follow-up time, y | |||||||
| 0-4 | 8026 | 31 579 | 193 | 7.1 | 27.3 (23.6-31.4) | 1 | 1 [Reference] |
| 5-9 | 4969 | 18 801 | 268 | 4.7 | 56.4 (49.9-63.6) | 2.1 | 1.67 (1.37-2.03) |
| 10-14 | 2713 | 9883 | 170 | 2.3 | 74.9 (64.1-87.1) | 2.7 | 1.47 (1.17-1.86) |
| 15-19 | 1391 | 5121 | 96 | 1.0 | 92.3 (74.8-112.7) | 3.4 | 1.11 (0.84-1.47) |
| ≥20 | 715 | 4206 | 104 | 0.9 | 116.1 (94.9-140.7) | 4.3 | 0.77 (0.56-1.05) |
Abbreviations: SCC, squamous cell carcinoma; SIR, standardized incidence ratio.
a
More than 95% of the patients were white; study analyses accounted for the background population risk (unadjusted SIR, unadjusted SIR ratio, and adjusted SIR ratio) using a multivariable Poisson regression, with expected number of cases of SCC as offset.