Table 4.

Adjusted predictions of unmet need rates among ASD children

	Unmet Need Level given	Change in Unmet Need Given Average	Additional change in Unmet Need given 1 SD increase in§
	No Waiver†	Waiver‡	Estimated Cost	Cost Limit	Enrollment Limit
All Children with ASD
Unmet need rate	0.185	−0.008	−0.009	−0.032 ***	−0.032 ***
% reduction		−4.2%	−4.5%	−16.6%	−16.5%
<150% FPL
Unmet need rate	0.215	0.050	0.096	−0.039	−0.025
% reduction		23.0%	57.9%	−23.6%	−14.9%
150% to 400% FPL
Unmet need rate	0.209	−0.034	−0.048	−0.032	−0.041
% reduction		−16.1%	−19.5% ***	−13.3%	−16.9%
> 400% FPL
Unmet need rate	0.107	−0.031	−0.064	−0.023	−0.024
% reduction		−28.7%	−46.6%	−16.6%	−17.2% ***

^†Rate of unmet need when there is no HCBS waiver in the state

^‡Rate of unmet need when the state has a HCBS waiver with average characteristics

^§Change in unmet need when HCBS waiver characteristic increases by 1 standard deviation over the mean.

The magnitudes of these 1-standard deviation increases change over time (as the waiver policies change). In 2011, they were: $18,373 (Estimated Cost); $57,520 (Cost Limit); and 7.3 per 10,000 children aged 18 and under in the state (Enrollment Limit).

* p<0.05

^***p<0.001