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Projected numbers of cases of EVD in Liberia in 2014 obtained using a branching process model with an ensemble of plausible parameter values. 95% prediction intervals from 07/04/14 (yellow shading) are compared with observed cumulative case numbers (logarithmic scale) over the following two months (blue line). 95% prediction intervals for a model that incorporates estimated levels of under-reporting are also shown (blue shading). Reproduced with authors’ permission from ref. (32).
