Table 3. Parameter estimates and system losses due to Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak (June 2014–April 2015) for clinic visits, bacille Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccinations, and measles vaccinations across a census of clinics providing services in Liberia excluding Montserrado County, 2010–2016.
| Time period | Clinic visits | BCG vaccinations | Measles vaccinations | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β (95% CI)* | p-Value | Mean (95% CI)† | β (95% CI)* | p-Value | Mean (95% CI)† | β (95% CI)* | p-Value | Mean (95% CI)† | |
| Overall yearly trends pre-EVD | |||||||||
| Monthly change Jan–Dec 2010 | −2.5 (−4.5, −0.50) | 0.014 | 746.6 (678.2, 815.1) | −0.31 (−0.41, −0.21) | <0.001 | 23.4 (21.0, 25.7) | 0.02 (−0.14, 0.19 | 0.80 | 18.6 (17.2, 20.1) |
| Monthly change Jan–Dec 2011 | −3.8 (−6.1, −1.5) | 0.001 | 712.7 (644.7, 780.8) | 0.23 (0.095, 0.36) | 0.001 | 22.4 (19.9, 24.9) | −0.17 (−0.32, −0.03) | 0.02 | 18.5 (17.0, 20.0) |
| Monthly change Jan–Dec 2012 | −5.4 (−8.0, −2.9) | <0.001 | 665.3 (601.4, 729.2) | −0.21 (−0.32, −0.11) | <0.001 | 23.3 (20.4, 26.2) | 0.23 (0.09, 0.37) | 0.001 | 19.5 (17.7, 21.2) |
| Monthly change Jan–Dec 2013 | −4.4 (−6.5, −2.2) | <0.001 | 616.6 (558.1, 675.0) | −0.16 (−0.27, −0.06) | 0.002 | 21.1 (18.5, 23.6) | −0.36 (−0.51, −0.21) | <0.001 | 17.2 (15.5, 19.0) |
| Monthly change Jan–May 2014 | 6.4 (−0.26, 13.1) | 0.06 | 592.6 (531.3, 654.0) | 0.63 (0.30, 0.96) | <0.001 | 21.9 (19.1, 24.6) | 0.73 (0.17, 1.3) | 0.01 | 17.5 (15.6, 19.4) |
| EVD outbreak (Jun 2014–Apr 2015) | |||||||||
| Monthly change first 4 months (Jun–Sep 2014) | −81.4 (−89.2, −73.5) | <0.001 | 488.2 (439.8, 536.6) | −3.0 (−3.4, −2.6) | <0.001 | 15.9 (14.0, 17.9) | −3.1 (−3.8, −2.5) | <0.001 | 11.3 (10.2, 12.5) |
| Monthly change middle 3 months (Oct–Dec 2014) | 55.3 (47.2, 63.3) | <0.001 | 394.2 (351.6, 436.8) | 2.2 (1.8, 2.6) | <0.001 | 15.7 (13.5, 18.0) | 4.9 (4.2, 5.6) | <0.001 | 16.8 (14.3, 19.3) |
| Monthly change last 4 months (Jan–Apr 2015) | −0.96 (−10.5, 8.6) | 0.84 | 502.3 (452.9, 551.6) | −0.83 (−1.3, −0.35) | 0.001 | 18.4 (16.1, 20.7) | −4.1 (−4.9, −3.3) | <0.001 | 19.6 (16.0, 23.2) |
| Post-EVD (May 2015–Dec 2016) | |||||||||
| Monthly change May–Dec 2015 | 9.2 (6.0, 12.5) | <0.001 | 562.8 (506.4, 619.3) | 0.29 (0.15, 0.42) | <0.001 | 18.6 (16.2, 20.9) | 0.28 (0.42, 0.52) | 0.02 | 13.8 (12.3, 15.4) |
| Monthly change Jan–Dec 2016 | 3.4 (0.72, 6.0) | 0.013 | 640.6 (577.6, 703.7) | 0.30 (0.14, 0.46) | <0.001 | 22.1 (19.4, 24.8) | 0.43 (0.24, 0.63) | <0.001 | 18.7 (16.6, 20.7) |
*All analyses include fixed-effect control variables for monthly indicator variables and facility-level catchment population.
†Mean represents average monthly number of system outputs across facilities included in a given analysis and across a given time period using a linear mixed model controlling for clustering at the facility level and employing an AR(1) structure to control for autocorrelation in residual errors.